Tennis · Challenger Bonn · 28/07, 11:00
Prediction: Max Houkes vs Roberto Carballes Baena
Prediction summary
Winner
Max Houkes
Roberto Carballes Baena
Estimated games
22.7
Recent form · 10 last
Max Houkes
7-3 (W-L)
Roberto Carballes Baena
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Max Houkes 1507 · Roberto Carballes Baena 1535
| Max Houkes | Roberto Carballes Baena | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 46% | 54% |
| Market | 42% | 58% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Max Houkes | Roberto Carballes Baena | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 40% (5) | 63% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.2 | 1.3-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.1-10.9 | 11.8-10.7 |
| Aces | 6.8 | 2.6 |
| Double faults | 2.6 | 1.4 |
| 1st serve % | 71.4% | 72.3% |
| Break % | 29.5% | 47.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.7
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Max Houkes
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/07 | Patrick Zahraj M25 Metzingen |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 23/07 | Imanol Lopez Morillo M25 Metzingen |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 22/07 | Stefan Popovic M25 Metzingen |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 17/07 | Tom Gentzsch Challenger Bunschoten · Clay |
1-2 | 16-16 | L |
| 15/07 | Max Schoenhaus Challenger Bunschoten · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 13/07 | David Jorda Sanchis Challenger Bunschoten · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 22/06 | Laslo Djere Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 06/06 | Martin Damm ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 01/06 | Emilio Nava Challenger Heilbronn · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 18/05 | Marco Cecchinato French Open · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
Roberto Carballes Baena
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/07 | Marc-Andrea Huesler Challenger Zug · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 24/06 | Mackenzie McDonald Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 22/06 | Mark Ceban Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 18/06 | Sebastian Ofner Challenger Parma · Clay |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 17/06 | Stefano Travaglia Challenger Parma · Clay |
2-1 | 18-11 | W |
| 16/06 | Miguel Damas Challenger Parma · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 14/06 | Jesper De Jong Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 13/06 | Francesco Forti Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 12/06 | Raul Brancaccio Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 10/06 | Gianmarco Ferrari Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Max Houkes vs Roberto Carballes Baena?
Our model gives 56% to Roberto Carballes Baena, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.