Tennis · M25 Bolzano · 27/07, 11:30
Prediction: Lorenzo Carboni vs Alessandro Dragoni
Prediction summary
Winner
Lorenzo Carboni
Alessandro Dragoni
Estimated games
21.1
Recent form · 10 last
Lorenzo Carboni
7-3 (W-L)
Alessandro Dragoni
2-8 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Lorenzo Carboni 1536 · Alessandro Dragoni 1481
| Lorenzo Carboni | Alessandro Dragoni | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 42% |
| Market | 94% | 6% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lorenzo Carboni (rating 1536 vs 1481).
- Note: Alessandro Dragoni makes many double faults (4.4/match).
Statistics
| Lorenzo Carboni | Alessandro Dragoni | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 40% |
| Win % · Clay | 60% (10) | 50% (4) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.9 | 0.8-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.1-10.6 | 6.9-10.3 |
| Aces | 1.2 | 2.2 |
| Double faults | 2 | 4.4 |
| 1st serve % | 64.2% | 61.5% |
| Break % | 56% | 48.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.1
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lorenzo Carboni
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07 | Matteo Trombini M25 Bolzano · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 02/06 | Roberto Carballes Baena Challenger Perugia · Clay |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 01/06 | Jelle Sels Challenger Perugia · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 31/05 | Li Tu Challenger Perugia · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 20/05 | Carlo Alberto Caniato Challenger Cervia · Clay |
1-2 | 16-15 | L |
| 19/05 | Ivan Ivanov Challenger Cervia · Clay |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 18/05 | Francesco Forti Challenger Cervia · Clay |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 17/05 | Samuel Vincent Ruggeri Challenger Cervia · Clay |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 11/05 | Laslo Djere Challenger Oeiras · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 10/05 | Miguel Damas Challenger Oeiras · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Alessandro Dragoni
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07 | Christian Bacher M25 Bolzano · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 13/07 | Pablo Pradat M25 Uriage |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 26/03 | Nicolas Parizzia M15 Altamura · ~Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 24/03 | Edoardo Zanada M15 Altamura · ~Hard |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 02/03 | Jonas Schaer M25 Trimbach · ~Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 19/01 | Julien Dando M15 Bagnoles de l'Orne · ~Clay |
0-2 | 2-11 | L |
| 18/01 | Thomas Gerbaud M15 Bagnoles de l'Orne · ~Clay |
2-0 | 7-2 | W |
| 11/01 | Mao Poels M15 Bressuire · ~Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 28/10 | Lorenzo Balducci ITF M15 Selva Gardena · Hard |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 27/10 | Richard Antoni ITF M15 Selva Gardena · Hard |
2-1 | 10-9 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lorenzo Carboni vs Alessandro Dragoni?
Our model gives 78% to Lorenzo Carboni, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.