Tennis · Challenger Bonn · 27/07, 14:00
Prediction: Jan Choinski vs Francesco Passaro
Prediction summary
Winner
Jan Choinski
Francesco Passaro
Estimated games
24.2
Recent form · 10 last
Jan Choinski
6-4 (W-L)
Francesco Passaro
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Jan Choinski
1–0
Francesco Passaro
(1 last)
- 19 Sept2-0 13-9W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Jan Choinski 1602 · Francesco Passaro 1443
| Jan Choinski | Francesco Passaro | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 71% | 29% |
| Market | 61% | 39% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Jan Choinski (rating 1602 vs 1443).
- Jan Choinski dominates on serve: 7.8 aces and 41.8% break avg.
- Jan Choinski is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Jan Choinski 1–0 Francesco Passaro (1).
Statistics
| Jan Choinski | Francesco Passaro | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 30% |
| Win % · Clay | 83% (6) | 30% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-1 | 1-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.6-11.6 | 11.6-13.7 |
| Aces | 7.8 | 2.9 |
| Double faults | 1.6 | 3.3 |
| 1st serve % | 72.1% | 66% |
| Break % | 41.8% | 38% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.2
H2H · Jan Choinski 1 – 0 Francesco Passaro (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Jan Choinski 1–0 Francesco Passaro
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09/25 Challenger Bad Waltersdorf | 2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Jan Choinski
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/07 | Nikoloz Basilashvili ATP Bastad · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 12/07 | Hugo Gaston Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 11/07 | Daniel Rincon Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 10/07 | Diego Dedura-Palomero Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 08/07 | Max Hans Rehberg Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
2-1 | 15-15 | W |
| 07/07 | Dimitar Kuzmanov Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 02/07 | Frances Tiafoe Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 15-23 | L |
| 30/06 | Vit Kopriva Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 19-10 | W |
| 25/06 | Zizou Bergs ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 24/06 | Felix Gill ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
Francesco Passaro
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/07 | Dominic Stephan Stricker Challenger Zug · Clay |
1-2 | 14-19 | L |
| 13/07 | Martin Krumich ATP Bastad · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 12/07 | Maks Kasnikowski ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-1 | 15-10 | W |
| 08/07 | Henri Squire Challenger Trieste · Clay |
1-2 | 16-18 | L |
| 01/07 | Enrico Dalla Valle Challenger Milan · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 30/06 | Daniel Michalski Challenger Milan · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 24/06 | Niels McDonald Challenger Targu Mures · Clay |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 23/06 | Oriol Roca Batalla Challenger Targu Mures · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 16/06 | Oriol Roca Batalla Challenger Parma · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 19/02 | Alejandro Tabilo ATP Rio De Janeiro · Clay |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Jan Choinski vs Francesco Passaro?
Our model gives 66% to Jan Choinski, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.