Tennis · ATP Washington · 28/07, 16:00
Prediction: Martin Damm vs Ben Shelton
Prediction summary
Winner
Martin Damm
Ben Shelton
Estimated games
28.2Bet365 line 23.5
Recent form · 10 last
Martin Damm
6-4 (W-L)
Ben Shelton
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Martin Damm 1541 · Ben Shelton 1555
| Martin Damm | Ben Shelton | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 48% | 52% |
| Market | 28% | 72% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Martin Damm dominates on serve: 10.4 aces and 51.8% break avg.
- Note: Ben Shelton makes many double faults (4.2/match).
Statistics
| Martin Damm | Ben Shelton | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 70% |
| Win % · Grass | 63% (8) | 75% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.9 | 1.8-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 14.3-11.8 | 17.4-16.3 |
| Aces | 10.4 | 12.4 |
| Double faults | 3.8 | 4.2 |
| 1st serve % | 77.3% | 77.8% |
| Break % | 51.8% | 30.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
28.2 · Bet365 line 23.5 · +4.7
Over 23.5: 80% · 2.00
Under 23.5: 20% · 1.72
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Martin Damm
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07 | Abedallah Shelbayh ATP Washington · Hard |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 25/07 | Kimmer Coppejans ATP Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 01/07 | Arthur Rinderknech Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 13-19 | L |
| 29/06 | Marco Trungelliti Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 27-25 | W |
| 16/06 | Jenson Brooksby ATP Queens · Grass |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 14/06 | Zachary Svajda ATP Queens · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 13/06 | Daniel Merida Aguilar ATP Queens · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 10/06 | Alex De Minaur ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 09/06 | Jaume Munar ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 07/06 | Juan Pablo Ficovich ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Ben Shelton
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/06 | Otto Virtanen Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 25-28 | L |
| 19/06 | Taylor Fritz ATP Halle · Grass |
1-2 | 19-20 | L |
| 18/06 | Ethan Quinn ATP Halle · Grass |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 17/06 | Lorenzo Sonego ATP Halle · Grass |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 14/06 | Taylor Fritz ATP Stuttgart · Grass |
2-1 | 14-14 | W |
| 13/06 | Jiri Lehecka ATP Stuttgart · Grass |
2-1 | 20-19 | W |
| 13/06 | Sho Shimabukuro ATP Stuttgart · Grass |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 12/06 | Marcos Giron ATP Stuttgart · Grass |
2-1 | 19-17 | W |
| 28/05 | Raphael Collignon French Open · Clay |
0-3 | 13-19 | L |
| 25/05 | Daniel Merida Aguilar French Open · Clay |
3-0 | 18-10 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Martin Damm vs Ben Shelton?
Our model gives 63% to Ben Shelton, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.