Tennis · Challenger San Marino · 27/07, 11:30
Prediction: Juan Pablo Varillas vs Francesco Forti
Prediction summary
Winner
Juan Pablo Varillas
Francesco Forti
Estimated games
24.3
Recent form · 10 last
Juan Pablo Varillas
5-5 (W-L)
Francesco Forti
9-1 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Juan Pablo Varillas 1528 · Francesco Forti 1537
| Juan Pablo Varillas | Francesco Forti | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 51% |
| Market | 56% | 44% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Juan Pablo Varillas | Francesco Forti | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 60% (10) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.2 | 1.5-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.6-12.6 | 12.8-12.1 |
| Aces | 5.8 | 2 |
| Double faults | 1.7 | 3.1 |
| 1st serve % | 67.9% | 70.6% |
| Break % | 45.1% | 38.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.3
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Juan Pablo Varillas
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07 | Stefan Latinov Challenger San Marino · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 20/07 | Alexander Donski Challenger Zug · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 19/07 | Gabi Adrian Boitan Challenger Zug · Clay |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 11/07 | Nicolas Mejia Challenger Bogota · Clay |
1-2 | 12-17 | L |
| 10/07 | Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 08/07 | Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-1 | 19-14 | W |
| 07/07 | Bruno Fernandez Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-1 | 14-13 | W |
| 01/07 | Alan Magadan Challenger Quito · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 29/06 | Dmitry Popko Challenger Quito · Clay |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 05/05 | Ryan Dickerson Challenger Santos · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
Francesco Forti
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07 | Federico Zeballos Challenger San Marino · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 13/07 | Peter Makk Challenger Cordenons · Clay |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 12/07 | Pietro Pampanin Challenger Cordenons · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 07/07 | Jack Loge Challenger Liege · Clay |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 28/06 | Fausto Tabacco Challenger Milan · Clay |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 13/06 | Roberto Carballes Baena Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 12/06 | Andrea Guerrieri Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 10/06 | Franco Agamenone Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
2-1 | 18-11 | W |
| 09/06 | Gonzalo Bueno Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 08/06 | Samuele Pieri Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Juan Pablo Varillas vs Francesco Forti?
Our model gives 53% to Juan Pablo Varillas, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.