Tennis · Challenger Bonn · 27/07, 12:10
Prediction: Marko Topo vs Valerio Aboian
Prediction summary
Winner
Marko Topo
Valerio Aboian
Estimated games
22.3
Recent form · 10 last
Marko Topo
6-4 (W-L)
Valerio Aboian
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Marko Topo 1477 · Valerio Aboian 1523
| Marko Topo | Valerio Aboian | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 57% |
| Market | 71% | 29% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Valerio Aboian (rating 1477 vs 1523).
- Note: Marko Topo makes many double faults (4.4/match).
Statistics
| Marko Topo | Valerio Aboian | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 40% (10) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.4 | 1.4-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.4-12.7 | 10.8-9.7 |
| Aces | 4 | 4.3 |
| Double faults | 4.4 | 2.4 |
| 1st serve % | 65% | 69% |
| Break % | 34.5% | 47.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.3
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Marko Topo
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07 | Leonardo Rossi Challenger Bonn · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 19/07 | Alexander Donski Challenger Zug · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 14/07 | Camilo Ugo Carabelli ATP Umag · Clay |
1-2 | 16-19 | L |
| 12/07 | Lukas Neumayer ATP Umag · Clay |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 01/07 | Lorenzo Giustino Challenger Troyes · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 30/06 | Leo Raquillet Challenger Troyes · Clay |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 24/06 | Martin Krumich Challenger Targu Mures · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 23/06 | Ilia Simakin Challenger Targu Mures · Clay |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 14/06 | Ryan Seggerman Challenger Parma · Clay |
1-2 | 17-19 | L |
| 08/06 | Federico Cina Challenger Bratislava · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Valerio Aboian
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07 | Yannic Nittmann Challenger Bonn · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 06/07 | Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes Challenger Bogota · Clay |
1-2 | 17-20 | L |
| 02/07 | Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves Challenger Quito · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 30/06 | Facundo Mena Challenger Quito · Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 26/06 | Gonzalo Villanueva Challenger Piracicaba · Clay |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 26/06 | Hernan Casanova Challenger Piracicaba · Clay |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 25/06 | Valentin Basel Challenger Piracicaba · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 14/05 | Juan Manuel La Serna Challenger Cordoba · Clay |
1-2 | 7-16 | L |
| 13/05 | Arklon Huertas del Pino Cordova Challenger Cordoba · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 11/05 | Carlos Maria Zarate Challenger Cordoba · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Marko Topo vs Valerio Aboian?
Our model gives 59% to Marko Topo, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.