Tennis · Challenger San Marino · 27/07, 11:30
Prediction: Thiago Monteiro vs Manuel Mazza
Prediction summary
Winner
Thiago Monteiro
Manuel Mazza
Estimated games
24.4
Recent form · 10 last
Thiago Monteiro
8-2 (W-L)
Manuel Mazza
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Thiago Monteiro 1530 · Manuel Mazza 1471
| Thiago Monteiro | Manuel Mazza | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 42% |
| Market | 78% | 22% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Thiago Monteiro (rating 1530 vs 1471).
Statistics
| Thiago Monteiro | Manuel Mazza | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 40% |
| Win % · Clay | 60% (10) | 40% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1.1 | 1.2-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 13-11.9 | 12.6-13.3 |
| Aces | 4.8 | 2.8 |
| Double faults | 1.7 | 2 |
| 1st serve % | 71.6% | 63.4% |
| Break % | 43.2% | 34.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.4
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Thiago Monteiro
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07 | Alberto Bronzetti Challenger San Marino · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 21/07 | Philip Henning Challenger Zug · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 20/07 | Petr Nesterov Challenger Zug · Clay |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 19/07 | Flynn Thomas Challenger Zug · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 12/07 | Dylan Dietrich ATP Gstaad · Clay |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 11/07 | Pierre-Hugues Herbert ATP Gstaad · Clay |
2-1 | 20-19 | W |
| 21/05 | Franco Agamenone Challenger Istanbul · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 21/05 | Pol Martin Tiffon Challenger Istanbul · Clay |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 19/05 | Alejo Sanchez Quilez Challenger Istanbul · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 13/05 | Andy Andrade Challenger Zagreb · Clay |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
Manuel Mazza
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07 | Niels Visker Challenger San Marino · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 28/06 | Norbert Gombos Challenger Milan · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 16/06 | Marcello Serafini M25 Milano · ~Clay |
1-2 | 14-19 | L |
| 08/06 | Carlos Sanchez Jover Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 01/06 | Nicolas Alvarez Varona Challenger Perugia · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 31/05 | Ioannis Xilas Challenger Perugia · Clay |
2-1 | 12-13 | W |
| 28/05 | Matteo Sciahbasi M25 Grado · ~Clay |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 27/05 | Andrea Zanini M25 Grado · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 18/05 | Giovanni Oradini Challenger Cervia · Clay |
1-2 | 15-18 | L |
| 17/05 | Laurent Lokoli Challenger Cervia · Clay |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Thiago Monteiro vs Manuel Mazza?
Our model gives 69% to Thiago Monteiro, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.