Tennis · Challenger San Marino · 27/07, 16:00
Prediction: Alexandre Muller vs Stefano Napolitano
Prediction summary
Winner
Alexandre Muller
Stefano Napolitano
Estimated games
22.2
Recent form · 10 last
Alexandre Muller
2-8 (W-L)
Stefano Napolitano
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Alexandre Muller
1–0
Stefano Napolitano
(1 last)
- 01 Jun2-0 12-5W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alexandre Muller 1393 · Stefano Napolitano 1522
| Alexandre Muller | Stefano Napolitano | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 32% | 68% |
| Market | 58% | 42% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Stefano Napolitano (rating 1393 vs 1522).
- Stefano Napolitano is in better form: 60% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Alexandre Muller 1–0 Stefano Napolitano (1).
Statistics
| Alexandre Muller | Stefano Napolitano | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 10% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 11% (9) | 60% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.4-1.9 | 1.4-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 8-12.6 | 12.2-11.5 |
| Aces | 1.9 | 11 |
| Double faults | 1.2 | 3.2 |
| 1st serve % | 65.8% | 69.5% |
| Break % | 17.2% | 39.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.2
H2H · Alexandre Muller 1 – 0 Stefano Napolitano (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Alexandre Muller 1–0 Stefano Napolitano
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/06/21 Challenger Biella | 2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alexandre Muller
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/07 | Mariano Navone ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 14/07 | Alexander Shevchenko ATP Gstaad · Clay |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 29/06 | Tommy Paul Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 4-18 | L |
| 16/05 | Edas Butvilas ATP Geneva · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 13/05 | Rei Sakamoto Challenger Bordeaux · Clay |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 06/05 | Botic Van De Zandschulp ATP Rome · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 28/04 | Yibing Wu Challenger Aix en Provence · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 22/04 | Jan-Lennard Struff ATP Madrid · Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 12/04 | Otto Virtanen ATP Barcelona · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 11/04 | Max Alcala Gurri ATP Barcelona · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Stefano Napolitano
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/07 | Gonzalo Villanueva Challenger Cordenons · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 16/07 | Alex Barrena Challenger Cordenons · Clay |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
| 13/07 | Felix Balshaw Challenger Cordenons · Clay |
2-1 | 16-8 | W |
| 22/06 | Billy Harris Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 15/06 | Franco Agamenone Challenger Parma · Clay |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 30/05 | Edward Winter Challenger Centurion · Hard |
1-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 29/05 | Philip Henning Challenger Centurion · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 28/05 | Alec Beckley Challenger Centurion · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 26/05 | Stefan Vujic Challenger Centurion · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 18/05 | Alejandro Moro Canas French Open · Clay |
1-2 | 12-17 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alexandre Muller vs Stefano Napolitano?
Our model gives 54% to Stefano Napolitano, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.