Tennis · Challenger Vancouver · 28/07, 19:00
Prediction: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Charles Broom
Prediction summary
Winner
Shintaro Mochizuki
Charles Broom
Estimated games
24.8
Recent form · 10 last
Shintaro Mochizuki
6-4 (W-L)
Charles Broom
4-6 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Shintaro Mochizuki
0–1
Charles Broom
(1 last)
- 11 Jun1-2 13-18L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Shintaro Mochizuki 1585 · Charles Broom 1511
| Shintaro Mochizuki | Charles Broom | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 60% | 40% |
| Market | 66% | 34% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Shintaro Mochizuki (rating 1585 vs 1511).
- Shintaro Mochizuki is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Shintaro Mochizuki 0–1 Charles Broom (1).
Statistics
| Shintaro Mochizuki | Charles Broom | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 50% |
| Win % · Grass | 83% (6) | 40% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 2-1.1 | 1.3-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 15.4-13.1 | 11.4-11 |
| Aces | 3.7 | 3.2 |
| Double faults | 2.8 | 1.6 |
| 1st serve % | 76.5% | 68.2% |
| Break % | 39.5% | 25.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.8
H2H · Shintaro Mochizuki 0 – 1 Charles Broom (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Shintaro Mochizuki 0–1 Charles Broom
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/06/24 Challenger Nottingham | 1-2 | 13-18 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Shintaro Mochizuki
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07 | Liam Draxl Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 25/07 | Johannus Monday Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 23/07 | Duncan Chan Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-1 | 14-12 | W |
| 22/07 | Philip Sekulic Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 05/07 | Jannik Sinner Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 12-19 | L |
| 03/07 | Rafael Jodar Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 20-20 | W |
| 01/07 | Ethan Quinn Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 20-13 | W |
| 29/06 | Max Basing Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 18-3 | W |
| 25/06 | Clement Tabur Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 22-21 | W |
| 24/06 | Gauthier Onclin Wimbledon · Grass |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
Charles Broom
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07 | Toby Samuel Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 24/07 | Rio Noguchi Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 22/07 | Zhizhen Zhang Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 21/07 | Edward Winter Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
| 13/07 | Rio Noguchi Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 20/06 | Marcos Giron ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 16/06 | Titouan Droguet Challenger Dublin · Grass |
1-2 | 10-16 | L |
| 15/06 | Andrea Guerrieri Challenger Dublin · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 14/06 | Dylan Leeman Challenger Dublin · Grass |
2-0 | 12-0 | W |
| 10/06 | Henrique Rocha Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Shintaro Mochizuki vs Charles Broom?
Our model gives 64% to Shintaro Mochizuki, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.