Tennis · Challenger Vancouver · 28/07, 19:00
Prediction: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Toby Samuel
Prediction summary
Winner
Jack Pinnington Jones
Toby Samuel
Estimated games
25.8
Recent form · 10 last
Jack Pinnington Jones
4-6 (W-L)
Toby Samuel
10-0 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Jack Pinnington Jones 1449 · Toby Samuel 1525
| Jack Pinnington Jones | Toby Samuel | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 39% | 61% |
| Market | 35% | 65% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Toby Samuel (rating 1449 vs 1525).
- Jack Pinnington Jones dominates on serve: 10 aces and 40.1% break avg.
- Toby Samuel is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Note: Jack Pinnington Jones makes many double faults (5.7/match).
Statistics
| Jack Pinnington Jones | Toby Samuel | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 70% |
| Win % · Grass | 29% (7) | 50% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.7 | 1.8-0.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.8-14.9 | 14-9.9 |
| Aces | 10 | 4.8 |
| Double faults | 5.7 | 2.2 |
| 1st serve % | 69.7% | 76% |
| Break % | 40.1% | 48.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25.8
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Jack Pinnington Jones
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/06 | Brandon Nakashima Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 14-20 | L |
| 24/06 | Jack Draper ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 22/06 | Marco Trungelliti ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
| 15/06 | Denis Shapovalov ATP Queens · Grass |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 12/06 | Filippo Romano Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
1-2 | 15-18 | L |
| 08/06 | Harry Wendelken Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 02/06 | Aleksandar Vukic Challenger Birmingham · Grass |
1-2 | 13-14 | L |
| 18/05 | Vitaliy Sachko French Open · Clay |
1-2 | 17-17 | L |
| 13/05 | Colton Smith Challenger Oeiras · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 11/05 | Darwin Blanch Challenger Oeiras · Clay |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
Toby Samuel
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07 | Charles Broom Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 24/07 | Yu Hsiou Hsu Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 23/07 | Yosuke Watanuki Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 21/07 | Mikael Arseneault Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 30/06 | Jakub Mensik Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 25-27 | L |
| 26/06 | Zizou Bergs ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 25/06 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 24/06 | Thiago Agustin Tirante ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 21/06 | Matteo Arnaldi ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
1-2 | 14-15 | L |
| 20/06 | Quentin Halys ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Jack Pinnington Jones vs Toby Samuel?
Our model gives 63% to Toby Samuel, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.