Tennis · Challenger San Marino · 28/07, 15:00
Prediction: Francesco Maestrelli vs Lukas Neumayer
Prediction summary
Winner
Francesco Maestrelli
Lukas Neumayer
Estimated games
24.2
Recent form · 10 last
Francesco Maestrelli
3-7 (W-L)
Lukas Neumayer
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Francesco Maestrelli 1410 · Lukas Neumayer 1449
| Francesco Maestrelli | Lukas Neumayer | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 56% |
| Market | 34% | 66% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Note: Francesco Maestrelli makes many double faults (5.2/match).
Statistics
| Francesco Maestrelli | Lukas Neumayer | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 10% | 30% |
| Win % · Clay | 14% (7) | 33% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.7-1.9 | 0.7-1.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.1-14.9 | 10.6-12.7 |
| Aces | 16.1 | 2.2 |
| Double faults | 5.2 | 2.2 |
| 1st serve % | 67.2% | 63.1% |
| Break % | 32% | 37.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.2
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Francesco Maestrelli
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/06 | Ognjen Milic Challenger Brasov · Clay |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 22/06 | Max Basing Wimbledon · Grass |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 15/06 | Alexis Galarneau Challenger Dublin · Grass |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 09/06 | Arthur Gea Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 26/05 | Kimmer Coppejans Challenger Chisinau · Clay |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 20/05 | Roberto Carballes Baena French Open · Clay |
1-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 19/05 | Rio Noguchi French Open · Clay |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 07/05 | Roberto Bautista-Agut ATP Rome · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 28/04 | Miguel Damas Challenger Mauthausen · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 20/04 | Nicolai Budkov Kjaer ATP Madrid · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
Lukas Neumayer
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/07 | Yannick Hanfmann ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 14/07 | Juan Carlos Prado Angelo ATP Umag · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 12/07 | Marko Topo ATP Umag · Clay |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 11/07 | Mili Poljicak ATP Umag · Clay |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 10/07 | Henri Squire Challenger Trieste · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 08/07 | Guido Ivan Justo Challenger Trieste · Clay |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 07/07 | Andrej Nedic Challenger Trieste · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 22/06 | Dusan Lajovic Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 16/06 | Florian Broska Challenger Poznan · Clay |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 08/06 | Taro Daniel Challenger Bratislava · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Francesco Maestrelli vs Lukas Neumayer?
Our model gives 61% to Lukas Neumayer, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.