Tennis · Challenger San Marino · 28/07, 15:00
Prediction: Vilius Gaubas vs Luka Pavlovic
Prediction summary
Winner
Vilius Gaubas
Luka Pavlovic
Estimated games
24.2
Recent form · 10 last
Vilius Gaubas
3-7 (W-L)
Luka Pavlovic
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Vilius Gaubas 1452 · Luka Pavlovic 1544
| Vilius Gaubas | Luka Pavlovic | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 37% | 63% |
| Market | 56% | 44% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Luka Pavlovic (rating 1452 vs 1544).
- Note: Luka Pavlovic makes many double faults (4.2/match).
Statistics
| Vilius Gaubas | Luka Pavlovic | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 17% (6) | 50% (4) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.7 | 1.3-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.2-14.3 | 11.9-10.7 |
| Aces | 4.5 | 7.2 |
| Double faults | 2.2 | 4.2 |
| 1st serve % | 67.2% | 77.7% |
| Break % | 27.6% | 39% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.2
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Vilius Gaubas
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/07 | Pablo Carreno Busta ATP Estoril · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 13/07 | Jesper De Jong ATP Bastad · Clay |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 09/07 | Facundo Diaz Acosta Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 07/07 | Nikoloz Basilashvili Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 30/06 | Kyrian Jacquet Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 13-19 | L |
| 25/06 | Dusan Lajovic Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 24-23 | W |
| 24/06 | Henry Searle Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 22/06 | Michael Mmoh Wimbledon · Grass |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 09/06 | Miguel Damas Challenger Lyon · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 01/06 | Timofey Skatov Challenger Perugia · Clay |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
Luka Pavlovic
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07 | Keegan Smith Challenger Segovia · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 24/07 | Mert Alkaya Challenger Segovia · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 22/07 | Yi Zhou Challenger Segovia · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 21/07 | Takuya Kumasaka Challenger Segovia · Hard |
2-1 | 15-9 | W |
| 14/07 | Yanki Erel Challenger Pozoblanco · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 09/07 | Titouan Droguet Challenger Iasi · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 07/07 | Frederico Ferreira Silva Challenger Iasi · Clay |
2-1 | 14-13 | W |
| 02/07 | Dimitar Kuzmanov Challenger Brasov · Clay |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 30/06 | Akira Santillan Challenger Brasov · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 24/06 | Jaime Faria Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Vilius Gaubas vs Luka Pavlovic?
Our model gives 53% to Luka Pavlovic, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.