Tennis · ATP Washington · 27/07, 16:00
Prediction: Kei Nishikori vs Juncheng Shang
Prediction summary
Winner
Kei Nishikori
Juncheng Shang
Estimated games
22.7Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Kei Nishikori
6-4 (W-L)
Juncheng Shang
3-7 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Kei Nishikori
1–2
Juncheng Shang
(3 last)
- 25 Dec0-2 7-12L
- 19 Sept0-2 8-12L
- 28 Jul2-0 13-10W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Kei Nishikori 1496 · Juncheng Shang 1442
| Kei Nishikori | Juncheng Shang | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 42% |
| Market | 34% | 66% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Kei Nishikori (rating 1496 vs 1442).
- Head-to-head: Kei Nishikori 1–2 Juncheng Shang (3).
Statistics
| Kei Nishikori | Juncheng Shang | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 30% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (6) | 30% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.2 | 0.8-1.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.6-11.7 | 11-13 |
| Aces | 2.6 | 4.5 |
| Double faults | 2.7 | 2.1 |
| 1st serve % | 69% | 70.1% |
| Break % | 42% | 25.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.7 · Bet365 line 22.5
Over 22.5: 51% · 1.90
Under 22.5: 49% · 1.80
H2H · Kei Nishikori 1 – 2 Juncheng Shang (3)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Kei Nishikori 1–2 Juncheng Shang
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/12/24 Russia Liga Pro | 0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 19/09/24 ATP Chengdu | 0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 28/07/23 ATP Atlanta | 2-0 | 13-10 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Kei Nishikori
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/04 | Jack Kennedy Challenger Savannah · Clay |
1-2 | 10-18 | L |
| 21/04 | Colton Smith Challenger Savannah · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 09/04 | Yibing Wu Challenger Sarasota · Clay |
1-2 | 10-15 | L |
| 08/04 | Nicolas Kicker Challenger Sarasota · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 09/03 | Clement Tabur Challenger Cherbourg · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 04/03 | Nicolai Budkov Kjaer Challenger Thionville · Hard |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 03/03 | Clement Tabur Challenger Thionville · Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 02/03 | Jelle Sels Challenger Thionville · Hard |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 01/03 | Daniel Jade Challenger Thionville · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 21/11 | Kaichi Uchida Challenger Yokohama · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
Juncheng Shang
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/02 | Daniil Medvedev ATP Dubai · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 16/02 | Daniil Medvedev ATP Doha · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 22/01 | Botic Van De Zandschulp Australian Open · Hard |
0-3 | 11-19 | L |
| 19/01 | Roberto Bautista-Agut Australian Open · Hard |
3-1 | 24-15 | W |
| 09/01 | Alexander Bublik ATP Hong Kong · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 08/01 | Lorenzo Sonego ATP Hong Kong · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 06/01 | Francisco Comesana ATP Hong Kong · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 28/12 | Yibing Wu Others · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 27/12 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Others · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 06/10 | Nuno Borges ATP Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Kei Nishikori vs Juncheng Shang?
Our model gives 55% to Juncheng Shang, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.