Tennis · ATP Washington · 27/07, 16:00
Prediction: Alex De Minaur vs Stefanos Tsitsipas
Prediction summary
Winner
Alex De Minaur
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Estimated games
25.6Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Alex De Minaur
7-3 (W-L)
Stefanos Tsitsipas
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Alex De Minaur
1–9
Stefanos Tsitsipas
(10 last)
- 21 Mar0-2 9-13L
- 14 May0-2 3-12L
- 01 Mar2-1 13-12W
- 06 Aug0-2 7-12L
- 21 Apr0-2 6-12L
- 29 Mar0-2 7-12L
- 11 Feb0-2 8-12L
- 14 Oct1-2 15-19L
Showing the 8 with a final score we have.
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alex De Minaur 1561 · Stefanos Tsitsipas 1554
| Alex De Minaur | Stefanos Tsitsipas | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 51% | 49% |
| Market | 60% | 40% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Alex De Minaur 1–9 Stefanos Tsitsipas (10).
Statistics
| Alex De Minaur | Stefanos Tsitsipas | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 60% |
| Win % · Grass | 70% (10) | 33% (3) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-0.8 | 1.4-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 14.6-10.1 | 14.5-14 |
| Aces | 3.7 | 7.3 |
| Double faults | 3.3 | 2.2 |
| 1st serve % | 71.6% | 78% |
| Break % | 46.3% | 28.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25.6 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +3.1
Over 22.5: 71% · 1.90
Under 22.5: 29% · 1.80
H2H · Alex De Minaur 1 – 9 Stefanos Tsitsipas (10)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Alex De Minaur 1–9 Stefanos Tsitsipas
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/03/26 ATP Miami | 0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 14/05/24 ATP Rome | 0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 01/03/24 ATP Acapulco | 2-1 | 13-12 | W |
| 06/08/23 ATP Los Cabos | 0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 21/04/23 ATP Barcelona | 0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 29/03/22 ATP Miami | 0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 11/02/22 ATP Rotterdam | 0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 14/10/21 ATP Indian Wells | 1-2 | 15-19 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alex De Minaur
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/07 | Flavio Cobolli Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 14-20 | L |
| 04/07 | Zachary Svajda Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 23-15 | W |
| 02/07 | Adrian Mannarino Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 18-7 | W |
| 30/06 | Roman Andres Burruchaga Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 19-7 | W |
| 19/06 | Brandon Nakashima ATP Queens · Grass |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 17/06 | Denis Shapovalov ATP Queens · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 16/06 | Gabriel Diallo ATP Queens · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 14/06 | Kamil Majchrzak ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
1-2 | 15-15 | L |
| 13/06 | Adrian Mannarino ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 12/06 | Benjamin Bonzi ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Stefanos Tsitsipas
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/07 | Raphael Collignon ATP Gstaad · Clay |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 18/07 | Alexander Shevchenko ATP Gstaad · Clay |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 17/07 | Arthur Rinderknech ATP Gstaad · Clay |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 16/07 | Jerome Kym ATP Gstaad · Clay |
2-1 | 19-17 | W |
| 14/07 | Ignacio Buse ATP Gstaad · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 01/07 | Novak Djokovic Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 9-18 | L |
| 29/06 | Hugo Gaston Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 18-7 | W |
| 23/06 | Ignacio Buse ATP Mallorca · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 28/05 | Matteo Arnaldi French Open · Clay |
1-3 | 18-24 | L |
| 20/05 | Learner Tien ATP Geneva · Clay |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alex De Minaur vs Stefanos Tsitsipas?
Our model gives 56% to Alex De Minaur, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.