Tennis · Challenger Vancouver · 26/07, 19:00
Prediction: Jay Friend vs Hiroki Moriya
Prediction summary
Winner
Jay Friend
Hiroki Moriya
Estimated games
22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Jay Friend
5-5 (W-L)
Hiroki Moriya
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Jay Friend 1507 · Hiroki Moriya 1461
| Jay Friend | Hiroki Moriya | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 43% |
| Market | 75% | 25% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Jay Friend (rating 1507 vs 1461).
Statistics
| Jay Friend | Hiroki Moriya | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (6) | 38% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.1 | 0.9-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.1-11.2 | 10.9-11.2 |
| Aces | 4.9 | 3.3 |
| Double faults | 3.4 | 3.3 |
| 1st serve % | 69.6% | 72% |
| Break % | 48.4% | 50.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.5
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Jay Friend
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/07 | Yu Hsiou Hsu Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 14/07 | Yuta Shimizu Challenger Granby · Hard |
1-2 | 10-16 | L |
| 11/07 | Keegan Rice M25 Laval |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 10/07 | Strong Kirchheimer M25 Laval |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
| 09/07 | Cole Thurgur M25 Laval |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 08/07 | Eloi Roux M25 Laval |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 04/07 | Braden Shick Challenger Cary · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 02/07 | Alex Martinez Challenger Cary · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 30/06 | Jeffrey John Wolf Challenger Cary · Hard |
2-1 | 18-16 | W |
| 29/06 | Justin Boulais Challenger Cary · Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
Hiroki Moriya
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/07 | Patrick Maloney Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 15/07 | Hayato Matsuoka Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 13/07 | Thomas Fancutt Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 12/07 | Andreja Petrovic Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-1 | 17-11 | W |
| 07/07 | Jason Jung Challenger Newport · Grass |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 05/07 | Alex Martinez Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 29/06 | Edward Winter Challenger Cary · Hard |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 20/06 | Hoyoung Roh M15 Maanshan · ~Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 18/06 | Uisung Park M15 Maanshan · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 17/06 | Seongwoo Cho M15 Maanshan · ~Hard |
1-0 | 6-2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Jay Friend vs Hiroki Moriya?
Our model gives 67% to Jay Friend, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.