Tennis · Challenger Bonn · 26/07, 15:30
Prediction: Marko Topo vs Leonardo Rossi
Prediction summary
Winner
Marko Topo
Leonardo Rossi
Estimated games
22.4
Recent form · 10 last
Marko Topo
5-5 (W-L)
Leonardo Rossi
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Marko Topo 1445 · Leonardo Rossi 1490
| Marko Topo | Leonardo Rossi | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 56% |
| Market | 78% | 22% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Leonardo Rossi (rating 1445 vs 1490).
- Note: Marko Topo makes many double faults (4.4/match).
Statistics
| Marko Topo | Leonardo Rossi | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | 30% (10) | 40% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.8-1.6 | 1.1-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.9-13.4 | 10.9-9.6 |
| Aces | 4.1 | 4.4 |
| Double faults | 4.4 | 2.1 |
| 1st serve % | 64.3% | 71.6% |
| Break % | 27% | 37.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.4
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Marko Topo
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/07 | Alexander Donski Challenger Zug · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 14/07 | Camilo Ugo Carabelli ATP Umag · Clay |
1-2 | 16-19 | L |
| 12/07 | Lukas Neumayer ATP Umag · Clay |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 01/07 | Lorenzo Giustino Challenger Troyes · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 30/06 | Leo Raquillet Challenger Troyes · Clay |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 24/06 | Martin Krumich Challenger Targu Mures · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 23/06 | Ilia Simakin Challenger Targu Mures · Clay |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 14/06 | Ryan Seggerman Challenger Parma · Clay |
1-2 | 17-19 | L |
| 08/06 | Federico Cina Challenger Bratislava · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 03/06 | Emilio Nava Challenger Heilbronn · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Leonardo Rossi
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/07 | Igor Marcondes Challenger Tampere · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 19/07 | Christopher Papa Challenger Tampere · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 12/07 | Matyas Fuele Challenger Cordenons · Clay |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 10/07 | Linus Lagerbohm M15 Lodz |
1-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 09/07 | Niklas Guttau M15 Lodz |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 08/07 | Marcello Serafini M15 Lodz |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 02/07 | Daniel Siniakov M25 Marburg · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 01/07 | Arian Barbic M25 Marburg · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 13/06 | Joaquin Guilleme M15 Vaasa · ~Hard |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 12/06 | Moritz Kudernatsch M15 Vaasa · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Marko Topo vs Leonardo Rossi?
Our model gives 63% to Marko Topo, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.