Tennis · ATP Washington · 26/07, 18:20
Prediction: Mackenzie McDonald vs Trevor Svajda
Prediction summary
Winner
Mackenzie McDonald
Trevor Svajda
Estimated games
24Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Mackenzie McDonald
4-6 (W-L)
Trevor Svajda
8-2 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Mackenzie McDonald
2–0
Trevor Svajda
(2 last)
- 04 Mar2-0 12-6W
- 28 Feb2-0 12-7W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Mackenzie McDonald 1497 · Trevor Svajda 1551
| Mackenzie McDonald | Trevor Svajda | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 58% |
| Market | 72% | 28% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Trevor Svajda (rating 1497 vs 1551).
- Head-to-head: Mackenzie McDonald 2–0 Trevor Svajda (2).
Statistics
| Mackenzie McDonald | Trevor Svajda | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 70% |
| Win % · Grass | 44% (9) | – |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.4 | 1.5-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.8-12.9 | 13-10.2 |
| Aces | 6.2 | 5.5 |
| Double faults | 2.3 | 2 |
| 1st serve % | 70.8% | 77.5% |
| Break % | 38.6% | 39.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +1.5
Over 22.5: 61% · 1.80
Under 22.5: 39% · 1.90
H2H · Mackenzie McDonald 2 – 0 Trevor Svajda (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Mackenzie McDonald 2–0 Trevor Svajda
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/03/26 ATP Indian Wells | 2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 28/02/25 Challenger San Diego | 2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Mackenzie McDonald
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07 | Edas Butvilas ATP Washington · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 08/07 | Adam Walton Challenger Newport · Grass |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 30/06 | Patrick Kypson Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 15-21 | L |
| 25/06 | Christopher O'Connell Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 18-11 | W |
| 24/06 | Roberto Carballes Baena Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 22/06 | Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves Wimbledon · Grass |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 16/06 | Shintaro Mochizuki Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 14/06 | Nicolai Budkov Kjaer Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 06/06 | Niels Visker ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 04/06 | Rinky Hijikata Challenger Birmingham · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
Trevor Svajda
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07 | Elias Ymer ATP Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 15/07 | Mark Lajal Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
1-2 | 16-18 | L |
| 12/07 | Aidan Kim M25 Dallas |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 11/07 | Evan Zhu M25 Dallas |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 10/07 | Matthew Forbes M25 Dallas |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 09/07 | Andreja Petrovic M25 Dallas |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
| 08/07 | Maximus Dussault M25 Dallas |
2-1 | 17-12 | W |
| 29/06 | Yuta Shimizu Challenger Cary · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 28/06 | Jie Cui Challenger Cary · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 03/06 | Edas Butvilas Challenger Tyler · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Mackenzie McDonald vs Trevor Svajda?
Our model gives 59% to Mackenzie McDonald, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.