Tennis · ATP Washington · 27/07, 16:00
Prediction: Adrian Mannarino vs Learner Tien
Prediction summary
Winner
Adrian Mannarino
Learner Tien
Estimated games
26.6Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Adrian Mannarino
4-6 (W-L)
Learner Tien
8-2 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Adrian Mannarino 1500 · Learner Tien 1524
| Adrian Mannarino | Learner Tien | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 47% | 53% |
| Market | 27% | 73% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Note: Learner Tien makes many double faults (5/match).
Statistics
| Adrian Mannarino | Learner Tien | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 70% |
| Win % · Grass | 50% (10) | 50% (4) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.3 | 1.9-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.8-12.4 | 17.6-15.6 |
| Aces | 3.9 | 5.8 |
| Double faults | 2.1 | 5 |
| 1st serve % | 70.1% | 71.1% |
| Break % | 51.7% | 50.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
26.6 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +5.1
Over 21.5: 82% · 1.83
Under 21.5: 18% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Adrian Mannarino
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/07 | Alexis Galarneau Challenger Newport · Grass |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 08/07 | Remy Bertola Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 02/07 | Alex De Minaur Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 7-18 | L |
| 30/06 | Titouan Droguet Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 18-7 | W |
| 21/06 | Nuno Borges ATP Mallorca · Grass |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 17/06 | Arthur Fery ATP Queens · Grass |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 16/06 | Jakub Mensik ATP Queens · Grass |
2-1 | 19-19 | W |
| 13/06 | Alex De Minaur ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 12/06 | Zhizhen Zhang ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 11/06 | Arthur Rinderknech ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
Learner Tien
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07 | Marton Fucsovics Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 20-25 | L |
| 29/06 | Dalibor Svrcina Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 24-15 | W |
| 17/06 | Felix Auger Aliassime ATP Halle · Grass |
1-2 | 18-20 | L |
| 15/06 | Max Schoenhaus ATP Halle · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 30/05 | Flavio Cobolli French Open · Clay |
0-3 | 7-18 | L |
| 28/05 | Facundo Diaz Acosta French Open · Clay |
3-2 | 27-26 | W |
| 26/05 | Cristian Garin French Open · Clay |
3-1 | 20-8 | W |
| 23/05 | Mariano Navone ATP Geneva · Clay |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 22/05 | Alexander Bublik ATP Geneva · Clay |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 21/05 | Alex Michelsen ATP Geneva · Clay |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Adrian Mannarino vs Learner Tien?
Our model gives 64% to Learner Tien, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.