Tennis · ATP Washington · 27/07, 16:00
Prediction: Brandon Nakashima vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry
Prediction summary
Winner
Brandon Nakashima
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
Estimated games
26.4Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Brandon Nakashima
8-2 (W-L)
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
4-6 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Brandon Nakashima
0–1
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
(1 last)
- 18 Apr1-2 16-16L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Brandon Nakashima 1536 · Tomas Martin Etcheverry 1443
| Brandon Nakashima | Tomas Martin Etcheverry | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 63% | 37% |
| Market | 62% | 38% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Brandon Nakashima (rating 1536 vs 1443).
- Brandon Nakashima dominates on serve: 10.9 aces and 60.7% break avg.
- Brandon Nakashima is in better form: 60% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Brandon Nakashima 0–1 Tomas Martin Etcheverry (1).
Statistics
| Brandon Nakashima | Tomas Martin Etcheverry | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 30% |
| Win % · Grass | 67% (6) | 20% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.9-1.2 | 0.8-1.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 18-15 | 11.8-13.9 |
| Aces | 10.9 | 6.1 |
| Double faults | 1.1 | 1.5 |
| 1st serve % | 78.9% | 69.2% |
| Break % | 60.7% | 33.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
26.4 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +3.9
Over 22.5: 75% · 1.90
Under 22.5: 25% · 1.80
H2H · Brandon Nakashima 0 – 1 Tomas Martin Etcheverry (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Brandon Nakashima 0–1 Tomas Martin Etcheverry
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04/24 ATP Barcelona | 1-2 | 16-16 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Brandon Nakashima
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07 | Jan-Lennard Struff Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 31-31 | L |
| 30/06 | Jack Pinnington Jones Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 20-14 | W |
| 20/06 | Francisco Cerundolo ATP Queens · Grass |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 19/06 | Alex De Minaur ATP Queens · Grass |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 17/06 | Ignacio Buse ATP Queens · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 16/06 | Marton Fucsovics ATP Queens · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 30/05 | Felix Auger Aliassime French Open · Clay |
1-3 | 20-25 | L |
| 28/05 | Luca Van Assche French Open · Clay |
3-2 | 29-22 | W |
| 25/05 | Roberto Bautista-Agut French Open · Clay |
3-0 | 19-9 | W |
| 11/05 | Nikoloz Basilashvili ATP Rome · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/07 | Alexander Bublik ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 23/07 | Ignacio Buse ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 22/07 | Jurij Rodionov ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 15/07 | Daniel Merida Aguilar ATP Umag · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 30/06 | Lorenzo Sonego Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 21-25 | L |
| 24/06 | Gabriel Diallo ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 16/06 | Daniil Medvedev ATP Halle · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 07/06 | Karen Khachanov Bonmont Tennis Masters · ~Grass |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 06/06 | Alexander Bublik Bonmont Tennis Masters · ~Grass |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 24/05 | Nuno Borges French Open · Clay |
0-3 | 9-18 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Brandon Nakashima vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry?
Our model gives 62% to Brandon Nakashima, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.