Tennis · Challenger San Marino · 26/07, 13:00
Prediction: Thiago Monteiro vs Alberto Bronzetti
Prediction summary
Winner
Thiago Monteiro
Alberto Bronzetti
Estimated games
23.1
Recent form · 10 last
Thiago Monteiro
7-3 (W-L)
Alberto Bronzetti
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Thiago Monteiro 1523 · Alberto Bronzetti 1464
| Thiago Monteiro | Alberto Bronzetti | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 42% |
| Market | 90% | 10% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Thiago Monteiro (rating 1523 vs 1464).
- Thiago Monteiro is in better form: 60% recent wins.
- Note: Alberto Bronzetti makes many double faults (4.5/match).
Statistics
| Thiago Monteiro | Alberto Bronzetti | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 30% |
| Win % · Clay | 60% (10) | 38% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1.2 | 1-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.3-12.7 | 9.4-10.4 |
| Aces | 5 | 1.4 |
| Double faults | 2 | 4.5 |
| 1st serve % | 71% | 58.2% |
| Break % | 44.6% | 47.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.1
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Thiago Monteiro
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/07 | Philip Henning Challenger Zug · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 20/07 | Petr Nesterov Challenger Zug · Clay |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 19/07 | Flynn Thomas Challenger Zug · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 12/07 | Dylan Dietrich ATP Gstaad · Clay |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 11/07 | Pierre-Hugues Herbert ATP Gstaad · Clay |
2-1 | 20-19 | W |
| 21/05 | Franco Agamenone Challenger Istanbul · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 21/05 | Pol Martin Tiffon Challenger Istanbul · Clay |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 19/05 | Alejo Sanchez Quilez Challenger Istanbul · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 13/05 | Andy Andrade Challenger Zagreb · Clay |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 11/05 | Andrej Nedic Challenger Zagreb · Clay |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
Alberto Bronzetti
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/05 | Matteo Sciahbasi M25 Grado · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-10 | L |
| 01/04 | Gabriele Maria Noce M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
1-2 | 14-19 | L |
| 31/03 | Andrey Chepelev M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 30/03 | Leonardo Angeloni M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 03/03 | Bogdan Seleznev M15 Sharm El Sheikh · ~Hard |
1-2 | 6-10 | L |
| 25/02 | Amr Asrawy M15 Sharm El Sheikh · ~Hard |
1-2 | 10-15 | L |
| 26/08 | Noah Perfetti ITF M15 Forli · Clay |
0-1 | 1-6 | L |
| 10/08 | Andrea De Marchi Challenger Todi · Clay |
1-2 | 11-12 | L |
| 06/08 | Andrea Picchione ITF M25 Montesilvano · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 04/08 | Lorenzo Beraldo ITF M25 Montesilvano · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Thiago Monteiro vs Alberto Bronzetti?
Our model gives 76% to Thiago Monteiro, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.