Tennis · ATP Washington · 26/07, 16:00
Prediction: Aleksandar Vukic vs Alex Bolt
Prediction summary
Winner
Aleksandar Vukic
Alex Bolt
Estimated games
25Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Aleksandar Vukic
7-3 (W-L)
Alex Bolt
4-6 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Aleksandar Vukic
1–1
Alex Bolt
(2 last)
- 24 Sept2-0 13-9W
- 10 Dec0-3 13-19L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Aleksandar Vukic 1527 · Alex Bolt 1460
| Aleksandar Vukic | Alex Bolt | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 60% | 40% |
| Market | 59% | 41% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Aleksandar Vukic (rating 1527 vs 1460).
- Aleksandar Vukic is in better form: 70% recent wins.
Statistics
| Aleksandar Vukic | Alex Bolt | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 30% |
| Win % · Grass | 25% (4) | 33% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1.1 | 1-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.4-12.6 | 11.9-13.7 |
| Aces | 7.3 | 8.7 |
| Double faults | 1.5 | 1.7 |
| 1st serve % | 72.2% | 69.4% |
| Break % | 34.2% | 25.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +2.5
Over 22.5: 67% · 1.80
Under 22.5: 33% · 1.90
H2H · Aleksandar Vukic 1 – 1 Alex Bolt (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Aleksandar Vukic 1–1 Alex Bolt
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/09/21 Challenger Columbus | 2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 10/12/18 Australian Open WC | 0-3 | 13-19 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Aleksandar Vukic
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07 | Mohamed Aziz Dougaz ATP Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 19/07 | Arthur Gea Challenger Granby · Hard |
2-1 | 13-11 | W |
| 19/07 | August Holmgren Challenger Granby · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 18/07 | Alexis Galarneau Challenger Granby · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 16/07 | Nicolas Arseneault Challenger Granby · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 14/07 | Liam Broady Challenger Granby · Hard |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 08/07 | Liam Broady Challenger Newport · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 29/06 | Jenson Brooksby Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 8-19 | L |
| 23/06 | Jenson Brooksby ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 21/06 | Hamish Stewart ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
Alex Bolt
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07 | James McCabe ATP Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 22/06 | Oliver Tarvet Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 14/06 | Mattia Bellucci ATP Halle · Grass |
1-2 | 15-19 | L |
| 13/06 | Jamie Mackenzie ATP Halle · Grass |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 10/06 | Keegan Smith Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 04/06 | Arthur Fery Challenger Birmingham · Grass |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 02/06 | Mattia Bellucci Challenger Birmingham · Grass |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 18/05 | Lukas Neumayer French Open · Clay |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 05/05 | Fajing Sun Challenger Wuxi · Hard |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 02/05 | Adam Walton Challenger Jiujiang · Clay |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Aleksandar Vukic vs Alex Bolt?
Our model gives 59% to Aleksandar Vukic, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.