Tennis · ATP Washington · 25/07, 20:30
Prediction: Mackenzie McDonald vs Edas Butvilas
Prediction summary
Winner
Mackenzie McDonald
Edas Butvilas
Estimated games
24.1Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Mackenzie McDonald
5-5 (W-L)
Edas Butvilas
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Mackenzie McDonald 1501 · Edas Butvilas 1401
| Mackenzie McDonald | Edas Butvilas | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 64% | 36% |
| Market | 61% | 39% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mackenzie McDonald (rating 1501 vs 1401).
- Mackenzie McDonald is in better form: 50% recent wins.
Statistics
| Mackenzie McDonald | Edas Butvilas | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 20% |
| Win % · Grass | 50% (10) | 0% (2) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.3 | 0.7-1.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.6-12.5 | 10.8-12.1 |
| Aces | 6.3 | 5.3 |
| Double faults | 2.2 | 1.9 |
| 1st serve % | 70.9% | 70.5% |
| Break % | 31.9% | 33.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.1 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +1.6
Over 22.5: 61% · 1.83
Under 22.5: 39% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Mackenzie McDonald
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07 | Adam Walton Challenger Newport · Grass |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 30/06 | Patrick Kypson Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 15-21 | L |
| 25/06 | Christopher O'Connell Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 18-11 | W |
| 24/06 | Roberto Carballes Baena Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 22/06 | Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves Wimbledon · Grass |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 16/06 | Shintaro Mochizuki Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 14/06 | Nicolai Budkov Kjaer Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 06/06 | Niels Visker ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 04/06 | Rinky Hijikata Challenger Birmingham · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 02/06 | Nicolai Budkov Kjaer Challenger Birmingham · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Edas Butvilas
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07 | Clement Tabur ATP Estoril · Clay |
1-2 | 16-14 | L |
| 11/07 | Marc-Andrea Huesler ATP Gstaad · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 30/06 | Frederico Ferreira Silva Challenger Brasov · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 22/06 | Moez Echargui Wimbledon · Grass |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 14/06 | Cruz Hewitt Challenger Dublin · Grass |
1-2 | 14-15 | L |
| 04/06 | Andre Ilagan Challenger Tyler · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 03/06 | Trevor Svajda Challenger Tyler · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 26/05 | Aidan Mayo Challenger Little Rock · Hard |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 20/05 | Alexander Bublik ATP Geneva · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 18/05 | Lorenzo Sonego ATP Geneva · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Mackenzie McDonald vs Edas Butvilas?
Our model gives 62% to Mackenzie McDonald, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.