Tennis · ATP Washington · 25/07, 16:00
Prediction: Aleksandar Vukic vs Mohamed Aziz Dougaz
Prediction summary
Winner
Aleksandar Vukic
Mohamed Aziz Dougaz
Estimated games
22.3Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Aleksandar Vukic
7-3 (W-L)
Mohamed Aziz Dougaz
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Aleksandar Vukic 1567 · Mohamed Aziz Dougaz 1623
| Aleksandar Vukic | Mohamed Aziz Dougaz | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 58% |
| Market | 71% | 29% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mohamed Aziz Dougaz (rating 1567 vs 1623).
- Mohamed Aziz Dougaz dominates on serve: 8.1 aces and 42.8% break avg.
Statistics
| Aleksandar Vukic | Mohamed Aziz Dougaz | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 90% |
| Win % · Hard | 100% (5) | 100% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1.1 | 1.8-0.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.5-12.8 | 12.8-7.9 |
| Aces | 7.1 | 8.1 |
| Double faults | 1.6 | 2.3 |
| 1st serve % | 71.4% | 76.2% |
| Break % | 35.4% | 42.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.3 · Bet365 line 22.5
Over 22.5: 48% · 1.83
Under 22.5: 52% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Aleksandar Vukic
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/07 | Arthur Gea Challenger Granby · Hard |
2-1 | 13-11 | W |
| 19/07 | August Holmgren Challenger Granby · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 18/07 | Alexis Galarneau Challenger Granby · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 16/07 | Nicolas Arseneault Challenger Granby · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 14/07 | Liam Broady Challenger Granby · Hard |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 08/07 | Liam Broady Challenger Newport · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 29/06 | Jenson Brooksby Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 8-19 | L |
| 23/06 | Jenson Brooksby ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 21/06 | Hamish Stewart ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 20/06 | Harry Wendelken ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Mohamed Aziz Dougaz
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | Tuncay Duran M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 11/07 | Nicolas Robert M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 10/07 | Felipe Virgili Berini M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 09/07 | Timofey Stepanov M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 08/07 | Sean Daryabeigi M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-1 | 12-12 | W |
| 05/07 | Cesar Bouchelaghem M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-1 | 18-10 | W |
| 04/07 | Tuncay Duran M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 03/07 | Digvijay Pratap Singh M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 01/07 | Nicolas Robert M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 24/06 | Rei Sakamoto Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Aleksandar Vukic vs Mohamed Aziz Dougaz?
Our model gives 58% to Aleksandar Vukic, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.