Tennis · M25 Sao Paulo · 24/07, 19:00
Prediction: Matias Soto vs Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves
Prediction summary
Winner
Matias Soto
Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves
Estimated games
22.9
Recent form · 10 last
Matias Soto
8-2 (W-L)
Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Matias Soto 1549 · Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves 1570
| Matias Soto | Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 47% | 53% |
| Market | 42% | 58% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Note: Matias Soto makes many double faults (4.5/match).
Statistics
| Matias Soto | Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 80% |
| Win % · Clay | 63% (8) | 75% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.9 | 1.7-0.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.9-11.5 | 13.1-9 |
| Aces | 5.9 | 5.1 |
| Double faults | 4.5 | 0.9 |
| 1st serve % | 72.4% | 73.5% |
| Break % | 45% | 46.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.9
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Matias Soto
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/07 | Rafael Tosetto M25 Sao Paulo |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 22/07 | Gabriel P Tumasonis M25 Sao Paulo |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 12/07 | Nicolas Mejia Challenger Bogota · Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 11/07 | Lorenzo Claverie Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-0 | 14-10 | W |
| 10/07 | Lucas Andrade da Silva Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 08/07 | Alan Magadan Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 07/07 | Juan Sebastian Osorio Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-1 | 15-10 | W |
| 01/07 | Juan Sebastian Osorio Challenger Quito · Clay |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 30/06 | Mwendwa Mbithi Challenger Quito · Clay |
2-1 | 14-16 | W |
| 26/06 | Gonzalo Villanueva Challenger Piracicaba · Clay |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/07 | Bastian Malla M25 Sao Paulo |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 22/07 | Joao Eduardo Schiessl M25 Sao Paulo |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 08/07 | Lucas Andrade da Silva Challenger Bogota · Clay |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 07/07 | Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 06/07 | Brandon Perez Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 05/07 | Andres Urrea Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 04/07 | Hernan Casanova Challenger Quito · Clay |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 03/07 | Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez Challenger Quito · Clay |
2-1 | 16-18 | W |
| 02/07 | Valerio Aboian Challenger Quito · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 30/06 | Lucas Andrade da Silva Challenger Quito · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Matias Soto vs Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves?
Our model gives 56% to Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.