Tennis · M15 Rognac · 24/07, 10:00
Prediction: Mathieu Scaglia vs Julio Cesar Porras
Prediction summary
Winner
Mathieu Scaglia
Julio Cesar Porras
Estimated games
20.1
Recent form · 10 last
Mathieu Scaglia
4-6 (W-L)
Julio Cesar Porras
8-2 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Mathieu Scaglia 1491 · Julio Cesar Porras 1554
| Mathieu Scaglia | Julio Cesar Porras | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 59% |
| Market | 35% | 65% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Julio Cesar Porras (rating 1491 vs 1554).
- Note: Mathieu Scaglia makes many double faults (4/match).
Statistics
| Mathieu Scaglia | Julio Cesar Porras | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 43% (7) | 80% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.2 | 1.6-0.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.8-10.1 | 11.3-8.2 |
| Aces | 2.3 | 1 |
| Double faults | 4 | 3.4 |
| 1st serve % | 64.3% | 67.8% |
| Break % | 39.3% | 57.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.1
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Mathieu Scaglia
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/07 | Nicholas Godsick M15 Rognac |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 20/07 | Alejandro Turriziani Alvarez M15 Rognac |
2-1 | 16-9 | W |
| 08/07 | Laurent Lokoli M25 Bastia-Lucciana |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 02/07 | Benjamin Pietri M25 Ajaccio · ~Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 01/07 | Lucas Poullain M25 Ajaccio · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 25/06 | Benjamin Pietri M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 18/06 | Aziz Ouakaa M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 16/06 | Nick Beamish M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 28/05 | Fausto Tabacco M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 27/05 | Amine Jamji M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Julio Cesar Porras
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/07 | Maxime Chazal M15 Rognac |
2-1 | 13-16 | W |
| 21/07 | Ntungamili Raguin M15 Rognac |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 20/07 | Victor Barreira Bonzom M15 Rognac |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 10/06 | Matei Florin Breazu M15 Curtea de Arges · ~Clay |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 26/05 | Nazar Oliynykov M15 Brcko · ~Clay |
0-1 | 7-8 | L |
| 03/05 | Fausto Tabacco UTR Pro Carvoeiro · Hard |
1-2 | 10-12 | L |
| 02/05 | Diego Fernandez Flores UTR Pro Carvoeiro · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 01/05 | Rafael Kis Balazs UTR Pro Carvoeiro · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 29/04 | Dino Molokova Ferreira UTR Pro Carvoeiro · Hard |
2-0 | 12-0 | W |
| 28/04 | Fred Gil UTR Pro Carvoeiro · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Mathieu Scaglia vs Julio Cesar Porras?
Our model gives 62% to Julio Cesar Porras, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.