Tennis · M25 Sao Paulo · 23/07, 18:00
Prediction: Lucas Andrade da Silva vs Mateus Alves
Prediction summary
Winner
Lucas Andrade da Silva
Mateus Alves
Estimated games
21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Lucas Andrade da Silva
5-5 (W-L)
Mateus Alves
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Lucas Andrade da Silva 1555 · Mateus Alves 1568
| Lucas Andrade da Silva | Mateus Alves | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 48% | 52% |
| Market | 54% | 46% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Lucas Andrade da Silva dominates on serve: 7.7 aces and 45.1% break avg.
- Mateus Alves dominates on serve: 6 aces and 46.6% break avg.
- Note: Lucas Andrade da Silva makes many double faults (4.4/match).
Statistics
| Lucas Andrade da Silva | Mateus Alves | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 80% |
| Win % · Clay | 67% (9) | 78% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.8 | 1.7-0.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.1-10 | 12-8.2 |
| Aces | 7.7 | 6 |
| Double faults | 4.4 | 2 |
| 1st serve % | 75.6% | 76.2% |
| Break % | 45.1% | 46.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.5
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lucas Andrade da Silva
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/07 | Benjamin Torrealba M25 Sao Paulo |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 10/07 | Matias Soto Challenger Bogota · Clay |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 08/07 | Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 07/07 | Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 06/07 | Federico Zeballos Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 05/07 | Segundo Goity Zapico Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 30/06 | Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves Challenger Quito · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 29/06 | Federico Zeballos Challenger Quito · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 28/06 | Jorge Ruiz Challenger Quito · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 26/06 | Thiago Seyboth Wild Challenger Piracicaba · Clay |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
Mateus Alves
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/07 | Kaua Lorenzo Santos Gava M25 Sao Paulo |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 13/07 | Jan Kumstat Challenger Bunschoten · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 12/07 | Fons Van Sambeek Challenger Bunschoten · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 05/06 | Nick Hardt M25 Cuiaba · ~Clay |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 04/06 | Livas Eduardo De Carvalho Damazio M25 Cuiaba · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 02/06 | Nicolas Villalon M25 Cuiaba · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 24/05 | Gustavo Ribeiro de Almeida M15 Maringa · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 23/05 | Herman Hoeyeraal M15 Maringa · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 22/05 | Ezequiel Monferrer M15 Maringa · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 21/05 | Ryan Augusto Dos Santos M15 Maringa · ~Clay |
2-1 | 14-16 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lucas Andrade da Silva vs Mateus Alves?
Our model gives 51% to Lucas Andrade da Silva, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.