Tennis · M25 Sao Paulo · 23/07, 16:30
Prediction: Matias Soto vs Rafael Tosetto
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Prediction summary
Winner
Matias Soto
Rafael Tosetto
Estimated games
22.3
Recent form · 10 last
Matias Soto
8-2 (W-L)
Rafael Tosetto
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Matias Soto 1554 · Rafael Tosetto 1466
| Matias Soto | Rafael Tosetto | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 62% | 38% |
| Market | 88% | 12% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Matias Soto (rating 1554 vs 1466).
- Matias Soto is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Note: Matias Soto makes many double faults (4.6/match).
- Note: Rafael Tosetto makes many double faults (4.2/match).
Statistics
| Matias Soto | Rafael Tosetto | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 40% |
| Win % · Clay | 67% (9) | 29% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.9 | 0.9-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.9-11.2 | 10.1-10.3 |
| Aces | 5.5 | 2.2 |
| Double faults | 4.6 | 4.2 |
| 1st serve % | 72.5% | 61.8% |
| Break % | 46.4% | 36% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.3
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Matias Soto
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/07 | Gabriel P Tumasonis M25 Sao Paulo |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 12/07 | Nicolas Mejia Challenger Bogota · Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 11/07 | Lorenzo Claverie Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-0 | 14-10 | W |
| 10/07 | Lucas Andrade da Silva Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 08/07 | Alan Magadan Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 07/07 | Juan Sebastian Osorio Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-1 | 15-10 | W |
| 01/07 | Juan Sebastian Osorio Challenger Quito · Clay |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 30/06 | Mwendwa Mbithi Challenger Quito · Clay |
2-1 | 14-16 | W |
| 26/06 | Gonzalo Villanueva Challenger Piracicaba · Clay |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 22/06 | Ignacio Monzon Challenger Piracicaba · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Rafael Tosetto
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/07 | Gustavo Albieri M25 Sao Paulo |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 22/06 | Wilson Leite Challenger Piracicaba · Clay |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 21/06 | Andre Souza Challenger Piracicaba · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 11/06 | Joao Victor Couto Loureiro M15 Brasilia |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 10/06 | Luiz Gusavo Felisberto M15 Brasilia |
2-1 | 18-11 | W |
| 03/06 | Gonzalo Villanueva M25 Cuiaba · ~Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 21/05 | Herman Hoeyeraal M15 Maringa · ~Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 20/05 | Joao Vitor Scramin do Lago M15 Maringa · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 13/05 | Mateus Alves M15 Maringa · ~Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 06/05 | Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida Challenger Santos · Clay |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Matias Soto vs Rafael Tosetto?
Our model gives 76% to Matias Soto, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.