Tennis · M15 Segrate · 24/07, 10:00
Prediction: Michele Mecarelli vs Martin Van Der Meerschen
Prediction summary
Winner
Michele Mecarelli
Martin Van Der Meerschen
Estimated games
22.4
Recent form · 10 last
Michele Mecarelli
4-6 (W-L)
Martin Van Der Meerschen
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Michele Mecarelli 1473 · Martin Van Der Meerschen 1568
| Michele Mecarelli | Martin Van Der Meerschen | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 37% | 63% |
| Market | 50% | 50% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Martin Van Der Meerschen (rating 1473 vs 1568).
- Martin Van Der Meerschen is in better form: 80% recent wins.
Statistics
| Michele Mecarelli | Martin Van Der Meerschen | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 80% |
| Win % · Clay | 29% (7) | 83% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.2 | 1.7-0.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.2-10.5 | 12.7-10 |
| Aces | 2.2 | 2.9 |
| Double faults | 2.8 | 2.8 |
| 1st serve % | 61.6% | 73.3% |
| Break % | 46.1% | 53.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.4
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Michele Mecarelli
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/07 | Andrea Tognolini M15 Segrate |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 21/07 | Leonardo Borrelli M15 Segrate |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 15/07 | Gabriele Maria Noce M15 Gubbio |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 09/07 | Matei Florin Breazu M15 Bucharest · ~Clay |
1-2 | 18-16 | L |
| 07/07 | Oleksandr Ovcharenko M15 Bucharest · ~Clay |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 14/06 | Jakub Paul Challenger Parma · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 07/06 | Petr Nesterov Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 27/05 | Gianmarco Ferrari M25 Grado · ~Clay |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 13/05 | Andrea Guerrieri M25 Reggio Emilia · ~Clay |
0-1 | 0-6 | L |
| 11/05 | Petros Tsitsipas M25 Reggio Emilia · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
Martin Van Der Meerschen
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/07 | Pietro Romeo Scomparin M15 Segrate |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 21/07 | Denis Constantin Spiridon M15 Segrate |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 16/07 | Lorenzo Beraldo M15 Gubbio |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 15/07 | Jacopo Bilardo M15 Gubbio |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 06/07 | Kai Wehnelt Challenger Liege · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 05/07 | Madhwin Kamath Challenger Liege · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 24/05 | Lorenzo Gagliardo M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-1 | 14-13 | W |
| 23/05 | Kristijan Juhas M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 21/05 | Maties Torres Ramis M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-1 | 18-16 | W |
| 20/05 | Milos Mikovic M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Michele Mecarelli vs Martin Van Der Meerschen?
Our model gives 56% to Martin Van Der Meerschen, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.