Tennis · WTA Palermo · 23/07, 17:00
Prediction: Francesca Jones vs Miriam Bulgaru
Prediction summary
Winner
Francesca Jones
Miriam Bulgaru
Estimated games
21.1
Recent form · 10 last
Francesca Jones
5-5 (W-L)
Miriam Bulgaru
3-7 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Francesca Jones
2–0
Miriam Bulgaru
(2 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Francesca Jones 1593 · Miriam Bulgaru 1453
| Francesca Jones | Miriam Bulgaru | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 69% | 31% |
| Market | 81% | 19% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Francesca Jones (rating 1593 vs 1453).
- Francesca Jones is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Francesca Jones 2–0 Miriam Bulgaru (2).
- Note: Miriam Bulgaru makes many double faults (4.3/match).
Statistics
| Francesca Jones | Miriam Bulgaru | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 30% |
| Win % · Clay | 88% (8) | 30% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.9 | 0.7-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.7-8.4 | 9.6-11.2 |
| Aces | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| Double faults | 2.9 | 4.3 |
| 1st serve % | 65.9% | 57.1% |
| Break % | 46.1% | 47.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.1
H2H · Francesca Jones 2 – 0 Miriam Bulgaru (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Francesca Jones 2–0 Miriam Bulgaru
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/05/25 W75 Prague | 2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 05/11/24 WTA Cali | 2-0 | 13-10 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Francesca Jones
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/07 | Darya Astakhova WTA Palermo · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 19/07 | Lucia Bronzetti WTA Rome · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 18/07 | Martina Trevisan WTA Rome · Clay |
2-1 | 14-8 | W |
| 17/07 | Noma Noha Akugue WTA Rome · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 15/07 | Federica Urgesi WTA Rome · Clay |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
| 13/07 | Dalila Spiteri WTA Rome · Clay |
2-1 | 13-7 | W |
| 09/07 | Leolia Jeanjean WTA Contrexeville · Clay |
1-2 | 15-14 | L |
| 07/07 | Alice Rame WTA Contrexeville · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 29/06 | Diane Parry Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 22/06 | Jelena Ostapenko WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
Miriam Bulgaru
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/07 | Caijsa Wilda Hennemann WTA Palermo · Clay |
2-1 | 15-9 | W |
| 14/07 | Elena Pridankina WTA Iasi · Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 08/07 | Leyre Romero Gormaz WTA Bastad · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 06/07 | Valeriya Strakhova WTA Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 01/07 | Petra Sedlackova W50 Stuttgart-Vaihingen · ~Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 24/06 | Weronika Ewald W50 Gdansk · ~Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 18/06 | Ane Mintegi Del Olmo WTA Brescia · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 16/06 | Danka Kovinic WTA Brescia · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 02/06 | Noma Noha Akugue WTA Makarska · Clay |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 27/05 | Iva Primorac Pavicic W35 Bol · ~Clay |
1-2 | 16-16 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Francesca Jones vs Miriam Bulgaru?
Our model gives 76% to Francesca Jones, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.