Tennis · ATP Kitzbuhel · 22/07, 11:00
Prediction: Sebastian Baez vs Arthur Rinderknech
Prediction summary
Winner
Sebastian Baez
Arthur Rinderknech
Estimated games
26.6
Recent form · 10 last
Sebastian Baez
7-3 (W-L)
Arthur Rinderknech
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sebastian Baez 1582 · Arthur Rinderknech 1481
| Sebastian Baez | Arthur Rinderknech | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 64% | 36% |
| Market | 47% | 53% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sebastian Baez (rating 1582 vs 1481).
- Sebastian Baez is in better form: 80% recent wins.
Statistics
| Sebastian Baez | Arthur Rinderknech | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 40% |
| Win % · Clay | 89% (9) | 33% (3) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-0.7 | 1.4-1.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.2-10.4 | 16.3-16.6 |
| Aces | 2.3 | 15.9 |
| Double faults | 1.7 | 3.6 |
| 1st serve % | 69.7% | 80.6% |
| Break % | 39.8% | 25.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
26.6
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sebastian Baez
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/07 | Miomir Kecmanovic ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 17/07 | Andrey Rublev ATP Bastad · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 16/07 | Jesper De Jong ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 14/07 | Max Dahlin ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 29/06 | Jan-Lennard Struff Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 24-26 | L |
| 07/06 | Alex Molcan Challenger Prostejov · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 06/06 | Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo Challenger Prostejov · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 05/06 | Maxim Mrva Challenger Prostejov · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 03/06 | Tristan Boyer Challenger Prostejov · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 02/06 | Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg Challenger Prostejov · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Arthur Rinderknech
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/07 | Stefanos Tsitsipas ATP Gstaad · Clay |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 15/07 | Clement Tabur ATP Gstaad · Clay |
2-1 | 20-18 | W |
| 03/07 | Novak Djokovic Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 21-21 | L |
| 01/07 | Martin Damm Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 19-13 | W |
| 29/06 | Oliver Tarvet Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 25-23 | W |
| 16/06 | Hamad Medjedovic ATP Queens · Grass |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 11/06 | Adrian Mannarino ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 07/06 | Stan Wawrinka Bonmont Tennis Masters · ~Grass |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 06/06 | Corentin Moutet Bonmont Tennis Masters · ~Grass |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 28/05 | Matteo Berrettini French Open · Clay |
0-3 | 12-18 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sebastian Baez vs Arthur Rinderknech?
Our model gives 55% to Sebastian Baez, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.