Tennis · ATP Kitzbuhel · 22/07, 11:00
Prediction: Alexander Bublik vs Facundo Diaz Acosta
Prediction summary
Winner
Alexander Bublik
Facundo Diaz Acosta
Estimated games
27
Recent form · 10 last
Alexander Bublik
5-5 (W-L)
Facundo Diaz Acosta
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alexander Bublik 1513 · Facundo Diaz Acosta 1604
| Alexander Bublik | Facundo Diaz Acosta | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 37% | 63% |
| Market | 62% | 38% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Facundo Diaz Acosta (rating 1513 vs 1604).
- Note: Alexander Bublik makes many double faults (4/match).
Statistics
| Alexander Bublik | Facundo Diaz Acosta | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 80% |
| Win % · Clay | 0% (1) | 80% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-1.4 | 1.8-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 16.5-16.4 | 14.5-10.8 |
| Aces | 18 | 2.4 |
| Double faults | 4 | 1.7 |
| 1st serve % | 80% | 71.6% |
| Break % | 24.8% | 46.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
27
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alexander Bublik
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/07 | Quentin Halys ATP Gstaad · Clay |
1-2 | 17-19 | L |
| 06/07 | Taylor Fritz Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 14-19 | L |
| 04/07 | Frances Tiafoe Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 28-27 | W |
| 02/07 | Kyrian Jacquet Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 19-13 | W |
| 30/06 | Thanasi Kokkinakis Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 28-23 | W |
| 16/06 | Mattia Bellucci ATP Halle · Grass |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 13/06 | Taylor Fritz ATP Stuttgart · Grass |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 12/06 | Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard ATP Stuttgart · Grass |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 10/06 | Jan-Lennard Struff ATP Stuttgart · Grass |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 06/06 | Tomas Martin Etcheverry Bonmont Tennis Masters · ~Grass |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
Facundo Diaz Acosta
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/07 | Federico Cina ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 14/07 | Lautaro Midon ATP Bastad · Clay |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 11/07 | Hugo Gaston Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
1-2 | 18-19 | L |
| 10/07 | Niels McDonald Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 09/07 | Vilius Gaubas Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 07/07 | Rudolf Molleker Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 05/07 | Marco Cecchinato Challenger Milan · Clay |
2-1 | 20-19 | W |
| 04/07 | Daniel Rincon Challenger Milan · Clay |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 03/07 | Juan Cruz Martin Manzano Challenger Milan · Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 02/07 | Daniele Rapagnetta Challenger Milan · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alexander Bublik vs Facundo Diaz Acosta?
Our model gives 51% to Alexander Bublik, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.