Tennis · ATP Kitzbuhel · 22/07, 11:00
Prediction: Tomas Martin Etcheverry vs Jurij Rodionov
Prediction summary
Winner
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
Jurij Rodionov
Estimated games
23.9
Recent form · 10 last
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
5-5 (W-L)
Jurij Rodionov
8-2 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
1–2
Jurij Rodionov
(3 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Tomas Martin Etcheverry 1431 · Jurij Rodionov 1555
| Tomas Martin Etcheverry | Jurij Rodionov | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 33% | 67% |
| Market | 66% | 34% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Jurij Rodionov (rating 1431 vs 1555).
- Jurij Rodionov dominates on serve: 7.6 aces and 45.8% break avg.
- Jurij Rodionov is in better form: 60% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Tomas Martin Etcheverry 1–2 Jurij Rodionov (3).
Statistics
| Tomas Martin Etcheverry | Jurij Rodionov | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 20% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 20% (5) | 60% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.8-1.9 | 1.4-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.9-15.7 | 11.4-9.9 |
| Aces | 5.5 | 7.6 |
| Double faults | 1.7 | 3.3 |
| 1st serve % | 69.4% | 74.5% |
| Break % | 39.8% | 45.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.9
H2H · Tomas Martin Etcheverry 1 – 2 Jurij Rodionov (3)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Tomas Martin Etcheverry 1–2 Jurij Rodionov
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/05/23 Challenger Aix en Provence | 1-2 | 15-14 | L |
| 16/09/20 Challenger Iasi | 0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 12/08/19 Challenger Portoroz | 2-1 | 18-11 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/07 | Daniel Merida Aguilar ATP Umag · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 30/06 | Lorenzo Sonego Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 21-25 | L |
| 24/06 | Gabriel Diallo ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 16/06 | Daniil Medvedev ATP Halle · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 07/06 | Karen Khachanov Bonmont Tennis Masters · ~Grass |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 06/06 | Alexander Bublik Bonmont Tennis Masters · ~Grass |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 24/05 | Nuno Borges French Open · Clay |
0-3 | 9-18 | L |
| 20/05 | Tommy Paul ATP Hamburg · Clay |
1-2 | 19-20 | L |
| 18/05 | Terence Atmane ATP Hamburg · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 09/05 | Mattia Bellucci ATP Rome · Clay |
1-2 | 12-17 | L |
Jurij Rodionov
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/07 | Joel Schwaerzler ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 19/07 | Vitaliy Sachko ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 18/07 | Andrey Chepelev ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 13/07 | Clement Tabur ATP Gstaad · Clay |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 30/06 | Mathys Erhard Challenger Milan · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 24/06 | Remy Bertola Wimbledon · Grass |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 22/06 | Oliver Crawford Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 20/06 | Henry Searle Challenger Dublin · Grass |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 20/06 | Titouan Droguet Challenger Dublin · Grass |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 18/06 | Yi Zhou Challenger Dublin · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Tomas Martin Etcheverry vs Jurij Rodionov?
Our model gives 51% to Tomas Martin Etcheverry, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.