Prediction: Esteban Talavera Cortes vs Mateo Luis Alvarez Sarmiento
Prediction summary
Winner
Esteban Talavera Cortes
Mateo Luis Alvarez Sarmiento
Estimated games
19.7
Recent form · 10 last
Esteban Talavera Cortes
3-7 (W-L)
Mateo Luis Alvarez Sarmiento
4-6 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Esteban Talavera Cortes
0–1
Mateo Luis Alvarez Sarmiento
(1 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Esteban Talavera Cortes 1437 · Mateo Luis Alvarez Sarmiento 1490
| Esteban Talavera Cortes | Mateo Luis Alvarez Sarmiento | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 58% |
| Market | 28% | 72% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mateo Luis Alvarez Sarmiento (rating 1437 vs 1490).
- Mateo Luis Alvarez Sarmiento is in better form: 50% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Esteban Talavera Cortes 0–1 Mateo Luis Alvarez Sarmiento (1).
Statistics
| Esteban Talavera Cortes | Mateo Luis Alvarez Sarmiento | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 20% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | 25% (4) | 43% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.5-1.6 | 1-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 7.9-11.8 | 8.1-9.3 |
| Aces | 0.8 | 1 |
| Double faults | 2.2 | 1.5 |
| 1st serve % | 63.2% | 60.5% |
| Break % | 46% | 35.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
19.7
H2H · Esteban Talavera Cortes 0 – 1 Mateo Luis Alvarez Sarmiento (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Esteban Talavera Cortes 0–1 Mateo Luis Alvarez Sarmiento
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/06/26 M15 Getxo | 0-2 | 8-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Esteban Talavera Cortes
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/06 | Mateo Luis Alvarez Sarmiento M15 Getxo · ~Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 16/06 | Alejandro Juan Mano M15 Mungia-Laukariz · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 15/06 | Mario Arce Fernandez M15 Mungia-Laukariz · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 10/06 | Mustapha El Natour M25 Martos · ~Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 30/05 | Sergio R Pereira UTR Pro Match Series · Hard |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 29/05 | Pavel Lagutin UTR Pro Match Series · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 28/05 | Juan Pablo Valdez Guzon UTR Pro Match Series · Hard |
1-2 | 10-15 | L |
| 27/05 | Darius Florin Pop UTR Pro Match Series · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 25/05 | Miguel Angel Machado UTR Pro Match Series · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 19/05 | Valentin Gonzalez-Galino M25 Mataro · ~Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
Mateo Luis Alvarez Sarmiento
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/07 | Javier Barranco Cosano M25 Gandia |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 15/07 | Pablo Aunion M25 Gandia |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 14/07 | Martins Rocens M25 Gandia |
2-1 | 9-10 | W |
| 02/07 | Oscar Jose Gutierrez M15 Getxo · ~Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 01/07 | Luis Garcia Paez M15 Getxo · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 29/06 | Esteban Talavera Cortes M15 Getxo · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 15/06 | Pablo Aunion M15 Mungia-Laukariz · ~Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 14/06 | Darrshan Suresh M15 Mungia-Laukariz · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 04/05 | Ivan Ivanov M25 Sabadell · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 29/04 | Lucca Helguera Casado M25 Castelldefels · ~Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Esteban Talavera Cortes vs Mateo Luis Alvarez Sarmiento?
Our model gives 66% to Mateo Luis Alvarez Sarmiento, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.