Tennis · M15 Rognac · 20/07, 16:30
Prediction: Lucas Marionneau vs Ruslan Serazhetdinov
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Prediction summary
Winner
Lucas Marionneau
Ruslan Serazhetdinov
Estimated games
19.6
Recent form · 10 last
Lucas Marionneau
6-4 (W-L)
Ruslan Serazhetdinov
2-8 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Lucas Marionneau 1524 · Ruslan Serazhetdinov 1430
| Lucas Marionneau | Ruslan Serazhetdinov | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 63% | 37% |
| Market | 90% | 10% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lucas Marionneau (rating 1524 vs 1430).
- Lucas Marionneau is in better form: 60% recent wins.
Statistics
| Lucas Marionneau | Ruslan Serazhetdinov | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 30% |
| Win % · Hard | 63% (8) | 14% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-0.9 | 0.7-1.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.1-9.8 | 6.9-11.2 |
| Aces | 3.7 | 2.7 |
| Double faults | 1.3 | 1.9 |
| 1st serve % | 74.1% | 62.1% |
| Break % | 42.9% | 30.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
19.6
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lucas Marionneau
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/07 | Francisco Rocha M15 Castelo Branco |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 15/07 | Tiago Silva M15 Castelo Branco |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 17/06 | Luca Pow M25 Tulsa · ~Hard |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 16/06 | Zac Hamill M25 Tulsa · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 12/06 | Andrew Fenty M25 Wichita · ~Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 10/06 | Daniel Milavsky M25 Wichita · ~Hard |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
| 09/06 | Will Mayew M25 Wichita · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 30/05 | Kaylan Bigun M15 Lakewood · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 29/05 | Noah Zamora M15 Lakewood · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 28/05 | Noah Johnston M15 Lakewood · ~Hard |
2-0 | 14-10 | W |
Ruslan Serazhetdinov
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/07 | Matis Roche M15 Rognac |
2-1 | 14-13 | W |
| 14/07 | Roan Jones M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 07/07 | Logan Zapp M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 23/06 | Rethin Pranav Senthil Kumar M15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 25/03 | Maxim Zhukov M15 Maanshan · ~Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 24/03 | Louis Larue M15 Maanshan · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 03/03 | Thantub Suksumrarn M15 Maanshan · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 19/01 | Florent Lagarrigue M15 Bagnoles de l'Orne · ~Clay |
0-2 | 1-11 | L |
| 18/01 | Alex Blanchar M15 Bagnoles de l'Orne · ~Clay |
2-1 | 10-10 | W |
| 12/01 | Yannick Baluska M15 Bressuire · ~Hard |
1-2 | 10-11 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lucas Marionneau vs Ruslan Serazhetdinov?
Our model gives 78% to Lucas Marionneau, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.