Tennis · ATP Kitzbuhel · 20/07, 14:40
Prediction: Joel Schwaerzler vs Jurij Rodionov
Prediction summary
Winner
Joel Schwaerzler
Jurij Rodionov
Estimated games
22.8
Recent form · 10 last
Joel Schwaerzler
3-7 (W-L)
Jurij Rodionov
8-2 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Joel Schwaerzler
0–1
Jurij Rodionov
(1 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Joel Schwaerzler 1434 · Jurij Rodionov 1552
| Joel Schwaerzler | Jurij Rodionov | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 34% | 66% |
| Market | 40% | 60% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Jurij Rodionov (rating 1434 vs 1552).
- Jurij Rodionov dominates on serve: 7.9 aces and 42.1% break avg.
- Jurij Rodionov is in better form: 60% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Joel Schwaerzler 0–1 Jurij Rodionov (1).
Statistics
| Joel Schwaerzler | Jurij Rodionov | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 33% (9) | 50% (4) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.9-1.6 | 1.4-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 12-12.4 | 11.5-10.1 |
| Aces | 12.1 | 7.9 |
| Double faults | 3.4 | 3.3 |
| 1st serve % | 68.3% | 73.7% |
| Break % | 26% | 42.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.8
H2H · Joel Schwaerzler 0 – 1 Jurij Rodionov (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Joel Schwaerzler 0–1 Jurij Rodionov
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08/25 Challenger Bonn | 1-2 | 12-13 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Joel Schwaerzler
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/07 | Lorenzo Sonego ATP Gstaad · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 07/07 | Federico Bondioli Challenger Trieste · Clay |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 22/06 | Christopher O'Connell Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 01/06 | Matej Dodig Challenger Heilbronn · Clay |
1-2 | 14-14 | L |
| 28/05 | Pol Martin Tiffon Challenger Vicenza · Clay |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 26/05 | Enrico Dalla Valle Challenger Vicenza · Clay |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 20/05 | Roman Safiullin French Open · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 19/05 | Clement Chidekh French Open · Clay |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 13/05 | Federico Cina Challenger Tunis · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 12/05 | Franco Agamenone Challenger Tunis · Clay |
2-1 | 18-11 | W |
Jurij Rodionov
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/07 | Vitaliy Sachko ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 18/07 | Andrey Chepelev ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 13/07 | Clement Tabur ATP Gstaad · Clay |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 30/06 | Mathys Erhard Challenger Milan · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 24/06 | Remy Bertola Wimbledon · Grass |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 22/06 | Oliver Crawford Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 20/06 | Henry Searle Challenger Dublin · Grass |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 20/06 | Titouan Droguet Challenger Dublin · Grass |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 18/06 | Yi Zhou Challenger Dublin · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 17/06 | Colton Smith Challenger Dublin · Grass |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Joel Schwaerzler vs Jurij Rodionov?
Our model gives 63% to Jurij Rodionov, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.