Tennis · ATP Kitzbuhel · 21/07, 11:30
Prediction: Alexandre Muller vs Mariano Navone
Prediction summary
Winner
Alexandre Muller
Mariano Navone
Estimated games
23.8
Recent form · 10 last
Alexandre Muller
2-8 (W-L)
Mariano Navone
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alexandre Muller 1390 · Mariano Navone 1507
| Alexandre Muller | Mariano Navone | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 34% | 66% |
| Market | 19% | 81% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mariano Navone (rating 1390 vs 1507).
- Mariano Navone is in better form: 50% recent wins.
Statistics
| Alexandre Muller | Mariano Navone | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 10% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | 11% (9) | 63% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.4-1.9 | 1.6-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 8.1-12.6 | 15.5-13 |
| Aces | 1.9 | 1.7 |
| Double faults | 1.3 | 1.8 |
| 1st serve % | 67.2% | 66.5% |
| Break % | 16.7% | 35.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.8
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alexandre Muller
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/07 | Alexander Shevchenko ATP Gstaad · Clay |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 29/06 | Tommy Paul Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 4-18 | L |
| 16/05 | Edas Butvilas ATP Geneva · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 13/05 | Rei Sakamoto Challenger Bordeaux · Clay |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 06/05 | Botic Van De Zandschulp ATP Rome · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 28/04 | Yibing Wu Challenger Aix en Provence · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 22/04 | Jan-Lennard Struff ATP Madrid · Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 12/04 | Otto Virtanen ATP Barcelona · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 11/04 | Max Alcala Gurri ATP Barcelona · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 07/04 | Corentin Moutet ATP Monte Carlo · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Mariano Navone
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/07 | Stefano Travaglia ATP Bastad · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 01/07 | Flavio Cobolli Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 21-21 | L |
| 21/06 | Lorenzo Sonego ATP Mallorca · Grass |
1-2 | 16-15 | L |
| 27/05 | Jakub Mensik French Open · Clay |
2-3 | 25-22 | L |
| 25/05 | Jenson Brooksby French Open · Clay |
3-0 | 18-12 | W |
| 23/05 | Learner Tien ATP Geneva · Clay |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 22/05 | Casper Ruud ATP Geneva · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 21/05 | Jaume Munar ATP Geneva · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 20/05 | Cameron Norrie ATP Geneva · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 17/05 | Marco Trungelliti ATP Geneva · Clay |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alexandre Muller vs Mariano Navone?
Our model gives 74% to Mariano Navone, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.