Tennis · ATP Kitzbuhel · 21/07, 11:30
Prediction: Sebastian Baez vs Miomir Kecmanovic
Prediction summary
Winner
Sebastian Baez
Miomir Kecmanovic
Estimated games
25
Recent form · 10 last
Sebastian Baez
6-4 (W-L)
Miomir Kecmanovic
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Sebastian Baez
0–3
Miomir Kecmanovic
(3 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sebastian Baez 1566 · Miomir Kecmanovic 1503
| Sebastian Baez | Miomir Kecmanovic | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 59% | 41% |
| Market | 45% | 55% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sebastian Baez (rating 1566 vs 1503).
- Head-to-head: Sebastian Baez 0–3 Miomir Kecmanovic (3).
Statistics
| Sebastian Baez | Miomir Kecmanovic | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | 78% (9) | 60% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.8 | 1.6-1.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.5-10.4 | 14.3-15.6 |
| Aces | 1.9 | 3.3 |
| Double faults | 1.6 | 2.2 |
| 1st serve % | 68.4% | 69.7% |
| Break % | 40.8% | 30.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25
H2H · Sebastian Baez 0 – 3 Miomir Kecmanovic (3)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Sebastian Baez 0–3 Miomir Kecmanovic
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/05/25 French Open | 2-3 | 22-30 | L |
| 28/10/24 ATP Paris | 1-2 | 16-19 | L |
| 26/06/24 ATP Eastbourne | 0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sebastian Baez
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/07 | Andrey Rublev ATP Bastad · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 16/07 | Jesper De Jong ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 14/07 | Max Dahlin ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 29/06 | Jan-Lennard Struff Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 24-26 | L |
| 07/06 | Alex Molcan Challenger Prostejov · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 06/06 | Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo Challenger Prostejov · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 05/06 | Maxim Mrva Challenger Prostejov · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 03/06 | Tristan Boyer Challenger Prostejov · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 02/06 | Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg Challenger Prostejov · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 18/05 | Alex Michelsen ATP Geneva · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
Miomir Kecmanovic
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/07 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo ATP Gstaad · Clay |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 13/07 | Kilian Feldbausch ATP Gstaad · Clay |
2-1 | 13-10 | W |
| 29/06 | Jannik Sinner Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 21-28 | L |
| 25/06 | Fabian Marozsan ATP Mallorca · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 23/06 | Lorenzo Sonego ATP Mallorca · Grass |
2-1 | 15-16 | W |
| 22/06 | Antoine Ghibaudo ATP Mallorca · Grass |
2-1 | 15-15 | W |
| 16/06 | Fabian Marozsan ATP Halle · Grass |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 27/05 | Nuno Borges French Open · Clay |
1-3 | 11-21 | L |
| 24/05 | Fabian Marozsan French Open · Clay |
3-0 | 19-13 | W |
| 17/05 | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo Challenger Valencia · Clay |
2-1 | 15-10 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sebastian Baez vs Miomir Kecmanovic?
Our model gives 51% to Sebastian Baez, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.