Tennis · ATP Kitzbuhel · 21/07, 11:30
Prediction: Alex Molcan vs Sebastian Ofner
Prediction summary
Winner
Alex Molcan
Sebastian Ofner
Estimated games
25
Recent form · 10 last
Alex Molcan
7-3 (W-L)
Sebastian Ofner
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Alex Molcan
1–2
Sebastian Ofner
(3 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alex Molcan 1524 · Sebastian Ofner 1517
| Alex Molcan | Sebastian Ofner | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 51% | 49% |
| Market | 60% | 40% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Alex Molcan 1–2 Sebastian Ofner (3).
- Note: Sebastian Ofner makes many double faults (4.1/match).
Statistics
| Alex Molcan | Sebastian Ofner | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 60% (5) | 63% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-1.2 | 1.5-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.6-11.9 | 14.1-13 |
| Aces | 3.8 | 9.1 |
| Double faults | 2.2 | 4.1 |
| 1st serve % | 69.3% | 75.1% |
| Break % | 48.7% | 39.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25
H2H · Alex Molcan 1 – 2 Sebastian Ofner (3)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Alex Molcan 1–2 Sebastian Ofner
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08/23 ATP Kitzbuhel | 2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 20/04/21 Challenger Rome | 1-2 | 10-18 | L |
| 31/08/16 ITF Austria F8 | 0-2 | 9-13 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alex Molcan
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/07 | Damir Dzumhur ATP Umag · Clay |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 16/07 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina ATP Umag · Clay |
2-1 | 15-9 | W |
| 14/07 | Valentin Royer ATP Umag · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 02/07 | Jiri Lehecka Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 9-18 | L |
| 01/07 | Daniel Altmaier Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 22-17 | W |
| 22/06 | Fabian Marozsan ATP Mallorca · Grass |
1-2 | 18-16 | L |
| 21/06 | Murphy Cassone ATP Mallorca · Grass |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 20/06 | Ziga Sesko ATP Mallorca · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 07/06 | Sebastian Baez Challenger Prostejov · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 06/06 | Hynek Barton Challenger Prostejov · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Sebastian Ofner
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/07 | Thiago Agustin Tirante ATP Bastad · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 08/07 | Daniel Rincon Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 07/07 | Norbert Gombos Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 01/07 | Hubert Hurkacz Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 14-19 | L |
| 29/06 | Hamad Medjedovic Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 23-21 | W |
| 20/06 | Luca Van Assche Challenger Parma · Clay |
1-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 19/06 | Laslo Djere Challenger Parma · Clay |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 18/06 | Roberto Carballes Baena Challenger Parma · Clay |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 17/06 | Enrico Dalla Valle Challenger Parma · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 15/06 | Raul Brancaccio Challenger Parma · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alex Molcan vs Sebastian Ofner?
Our model gives 56% to Alex Molcan, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.