Tennis · UTR Pro Kawaguchi · 19/07, 03:00
Prediction: Naoki Nakagawa vs Ryota Tanuma
Prediction summary
Winner
Naoki Nakagawa
Ryota Tanuma
Estimated games
20.5
Recent form · 10 last
Naoki Nakagawa
6-4 (W-L)
Ryota Tanuma
8-2 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Naoki Nakagawa
3–1
Ryota Tanuma
(4 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Naoki Nakagawa 1579 · Ryota Tanuma 1583
| Naoki Nakagawa | Ryota Tanuma | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 51% |
| Market | 61% | 39% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Naoki Nakagawa dominates on serve: 8.6 aces and 44.6% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Naoki Nakagawa 3–1 Ryota Tanuma (4).
Statistics
| Naoki Nakagawa | Ryota Tanuma | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 70% (10) | 80% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-0.9 | 1.7-0.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.4-10.1 | 11.4-7.4 |
| Aces | 8.6 | 4 |
| Double faults | 2.4 | 1.4 |
| 1st serve % | 83.5% | 73.1% |
| Break % | 44.6% | 42.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.5
H2H · Naoki Nakagawa 3 – 1 Ryota Tanuma (4)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Naoki Nakagawa 3–1 Ryota Tanuma
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07/26 M15 Tokyo | 0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 19/10/25 UTR Pro Kawaguchi | 2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 05/10/25 UTR Pro Kawaguchi | 2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 06/11/22 Challenger Matsuyama | 2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Naoki Nakagawa
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07 | Hiiro Sakamoto UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 17/07 | Soma Fukuhara UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 11/07 | Koki Matsuda M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 10/07 | Shintaro Imai M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
2-1 | 14-15 | W |
| 09/07 | Naoya Honda M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
2-1 | 16-9 | W |
| 08/07 | Sanhui Shin M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 01/07 | Ryota Tanuma M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 20/06 | Jake Delaney M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 19/06 | Renta Tokuda M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
1-0 | 6-4 | W |
| 18/06 | Colin Sinclair M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
Ryota Tanuma
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07 | Ryotaro Matsumura UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-0 | 12-0 | W |
| 18/07 | Taiyo Kurata UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 09/07 | Yuki Mochizuki M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 08/07 | Shion Yamada M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 07/07 | Kazuma Kawachi M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 02/07 | Maximus Jones M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
1-2 | 9-16 | L |
| 01/07 | Naoki Nakagawa M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 30/06 | Ren Nakamura M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 24/06 | Hunter Heck UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 24/06 | Asahi Harazaki UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Naoki Nakagawa vs Ryota Tanuma?
Our model gives 56% to Naoki Nakagawa, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.