Tennis · UTR Pro Kawaguchi · 18/07, 03:45
Prediction: Toshiki Karigyo vs Naoto Tomizawa
Prediction summary
Winner
Toshiki Karigyo
Naoto Tomizawa
Estimated games
21.7
Recent form · 10 last
Toshiki Karigyo
5-5 (W-L)
Naoto Tomizawa
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Toshiki Karigyo 1540 · Naoto Tomizawa 1528
| Toshiki Karigyo | Naoto Tomizawa | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 52% | 48% |
| Market | 56% | 44% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Note: Toshiki Karigyo makes many double faults (4.5/match).
Statistics
| Toshiki Karigyo | Naoto Tomizawa | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 67% (9) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.1 | 1.3-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.7-10.9 | 11.3-9.4 |
| Aces | 1.8 | 3.7 |
| Double faults | 4.5 | 3.4 |
| 1st serve % | 63.3% | 65.6% |
| Break % | 49.1% | 50.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.7
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Toshiki Karigyo
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/07 | Taiyo Kurata UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
1-2 | 18-19 | L |
| 14/07 | Christopher Rodi UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 13/07 | Min Jae Kim UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 24/06 | Kosuke Nakanishi UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-1 | 13-10 | W |
| 24/06 | Corban Crowther UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 23/06 | Shion Itsusaki UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 23/06 | Diordan Macababbad UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 22/06 | Ryota Tanuma UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 27/05 | Yua Taka M15 Karuizawa · ~Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 19/05 | Shixun Zhu M15 Luan · ~Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
Naoto Tomizawa
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/07 | Shion Itsusaki UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-1 | 16-9 | W |
| 15/07 | Yuga Tashiro UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 14/07 | Hiiro Sakamoto UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 13/07 | Nuutti Jokinen UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 08/07 | Kokoro Isomura M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 07/07 | Hien Q H Pham M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 24/06 | Jonathan Irwanto UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 24/06 | Hiiro Sakamoto UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 23/06 | Hunter Heck UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 22/06 | Kosuke Nakanishi UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Toshiki Karigyo vs Naoto Tomizawa?
Our model gives 54% to Toshiki Karigyo, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.