Tennis · W75 Granby · 18/07, 18:00
Prediction: Sara Saito vs Sakura Hosogi
Prediction summary
Winner
Sara Saito
Sakura Hosogi
Estimated games
20.9
Recent form · 10 last
Sara Saito
5-5 (W-L)
Sakura Hosogi
8-2 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Sara Saito
0–1
Sakura Hosogi
(1 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sara Saito 1514 · Sakura Hosogi 1586
| Sara Saito | Sakura Hosogi | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 60% |
| Market | 54% | 46% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sakura Hosogi (rating 1514 vs 1586).
- Head-to-head: Sara Saito 0–1 Sakura Hosogi (1).
- Note: Sara Saito makes many double faults (7.2/match).
Statistics
| Sara Saito | Sakura Hosogi | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 43% (7) | 50% (2) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1 | 1.6-0.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.9-10.4 | 12.2-9.1 |
| Aces | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| Double faults | 7.2 | 1.3 |
| 1st serve % | 62.9% | 63.9% |
| Break % | 53.1% | 50.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.9
H2H · Sara Saito 0 – 1 Sakura Hosogi (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Sara Saito 0–1 Sakura Hosogi
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/09/22 ITF W25 Nanao | 1-2 | 13-16 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sara Saito
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07 | Cadence Brace W75 Granby |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 16/07 | Kayo Nishimura W75 Granby |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 15/07 | Yuki Naito W75 Granby |
2-1 | 13-10 | W |
| 24/06 | Erika Sema W35 Taipei · ~Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 16/06 | Kayo Nishimura W35 Taipei · ~Hard |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 13/06 | Yujia Huang W100 Wuning · ~Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 12/06 | Varvara Panshina W100 Wuning · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 11/06 | Daria Khomutsianskaya W100 Wuning · ~Hard |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 10/06 | Chengyiyi Yuan W100 Wuning · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 22/05 | Hayu Kinoshita W100 Takasaki · ~Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
Sakura Hosogi
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/07 | Ena Koike W75 Granby |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 16/07 | Alexandra Vagramov W75 Granby |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 15/07 | Hayu Kinoshita W75 Granby |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 12/07 | Julieta Pareja W50 Columbus |
0-2 | 6-11 | L |
| 11/07 | Sara Daavettila W50 Columbus |
2-1 | 14-13 | W |
| 10/07 | Ana Grubor W50 Columbus |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 09/07 | Thara Gowda W50 Columbus |
2-1 | 16-9 | W |
| 08/07 | Capucine Jauffret W50 Columbus |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 28/06 | Priska Madelyn Nugroho W35 Taipei · ~Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 27/06 | Gyeong Seo Lee W35 Taipei · ~Hard |
2-0 | 9-6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sara Saito vs Sakura Hosogi?
Our model gives 53% to Sakura Hosogi, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.