Tennis · M25 Brisbane · 17/07, 04:30
Prediction: Chase Ferguson vs Jake Delaney
Prediction summary
Winner
Chase Ferguson
Jake Delaney
Estimated games
20.7
Recent form · 10 last
Chase Ferguson
4-6 (W-L)
Jake Delaney
8-2 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Chase Ferguson 1498 · Jake Delaney 1576
| Chase Ferguson | Jake Delaney | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 39% | 61% |
| Market | 25% | 75% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Jake Delaney (rating 1498 vs 1576).
- Jake Delaney is in better form: 80% recent wins.
Statistics
| Chase Ferguson | Jake Delaney | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 38% (8) | 75% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1 | 1.6-0.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 10-10.3 | 11.2-8.3 |
| Aces | 1.3 | 7 |
| Double faults | 2.2 | 1.2 |
| 1st serve % | 60.8% | 79.5% |
| Break % | 44.2% | 26.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.7
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Chase Ferguson
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/07 | Mustafa Ege Sik M25 Brisbane |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 14/07 | Yuki Mochizuki M25 Brisbane |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 03/07 | Fitriadi M Rifqi M15 Wuning · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 02/07 | Yuta Tomida M15 Wuning · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 01/07 | Noritaka Koizumi M15 Wuning · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 25/06 | Fanming Meng M15 Wuning · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 24/06 | Taiyo Yamanaka M15 Wuning · ~Hard |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 16/06 | Taiyo Yamanaka M15 Maanshan · ~Hard |
1-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 09/06 | Hanyi Liu M15 Maanshan · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 08/04 | Matthew Dellavedova M25 Maanshan · ~Hard |
0-1 | 1-6 | L |
Jake Delaney
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/07 | Nikita Volonski M25 Brisbane |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 15/07 | Duje Markovina M25 Brisbane |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 24/06 | Max Purcell M15 Wuning · ~Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 21/06 | Masamichi Imamura M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 20/06 | Naoki Nakagawa M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 19/06 | Max Purcell M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 18/06 | Yusuke Kusuhara M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 16/06 | Hyu Kawanishi M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 12/06 | Alan Magadan M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 11/06 | Riku Takahata M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Chase Ferguson vs Jake Delaney?
Our model gives 69% to Jake Delaney, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.