Tennis · UTR Pro Kawaguchi · 17/07, 02:00
Prediction: Naoki Nakagawa vs Soma Fukuhara
Prediction summary
Winner
Naoki Nakagawa
Soma Fukuhara
Estimated games
22.2
Recent form · 10 last
Naoki Nakagawa
5-5 (W-L)
Soma Fukuhara
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Naoki Nakagawa 1534 · Soma Fukuhara 1500
| Naoki Nakagawa | Soma Fukuhara | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 55% | 45% |
| Market | 88% | 12% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Naoki Nakagawa dominates on serve: 9.2 aces and 44.6% break avg.
Statistics
| Naoki Nakagawa | Soma Fukuhara | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 60% (10) | 50% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.1 | 1.1-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.2-11.3 | 11.2-12.1 |
| Aces | 9.2 | 1.5 |
| Double faults | 2.6 | 3.1 |
| 1st serve % | 80.7% | 61.5% |
| Break % | 44.6% | 42% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.2
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Naoki Nakagawa
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | Koki Matsuda M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 10/07 | Shintaro Imai M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
2-1 | 14-15 | W |
| 09/07 | Naoya Honda M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
2-1 | 16-9 | W |
| 08/07 | Sanhui Shin M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 01/07 | Ryota Tanuma M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 20/06 | Jake Delaney M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 19/06 | Renta Tokuda M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
1-0 | 6-4 | W |
| 18/06 | Colin Sinclair M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 16/06 | Leo Vithoontien M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 09/06 | Takuya Kumasaka M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
0-2 | 10-14 | L |
Soma Fukuhara
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/07 | Taiyo Uenoyama UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 14/07 | Koyu Yanagi UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 14/07 | Kotaro Mochizuki UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-1 | 15-16 | W |
| 05/06 | Kosuke Nakanishi UTR Pro Kakogawa · Hard |
2-1 | 15-15 | W |
| 04/06 | Winston Lee UTR Pro Kakogawa · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 03/06 | Alan Magadan UTR Pro Kakogawa · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 01/06 | Kotaro Mochizuki UTR Pro Kakogawa · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 01/06 | Kosuke Shibano UTR Pro Kakogawa · Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 20/05 | Masato Tanaka UTR Pro Kakogawa · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 19/05 | Kotaro Mochizuki UTR Pro Kakogawa · Hard |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Naoki Nakagawa vs Soma Fukuhara?
Our model gives 73% to Naoki Nakagawa, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.