Tennis · M25 Brisbane · 15/07, 05:00
Prediction: Jeremy Beale vs Kousuke Ogura
Prediction summary
Winner
Jeremy Beale
Kousuke Ogura
Estimated games
22.3
Recent form · 10 last
Jeremy Beale
8-2 (W-L)
Kousuke Ogura
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Jeremy Beale 1574 · Kousuke Ogura 1464
| Jeremy Beale | Kousuke Ogura | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 65% | 35% |
| Market | 50% | 50% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Jeremy Beale (rating 1574 vs 1464).
- Jeremy Beale is in better form: 80% recent wins.
Statistics
| Jeremy Beale | Kousuke Ogura | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 78% (9) | 44% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.7-0.8 | 1.2-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.6-9.7 | 11.6-10.9 |
| Aces | 3.4 | 4.1 |
| Double faults | 1.4 | 2.3 |
| 1st serve % | 70.7% | 64.6% |
| Break % | 48.9% | 35.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.3
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Jeremy Beale
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/07 | Asher Brownrigg M25 Brisbane |
2-1 | 13-10 | W |
| 20/06 | Zane Stevens UTR Pro Sydney · Hard |
1-2 | 17-19 | L |
| 18/06 | Nikita Volonski UTR Pro Sydney · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 17/06 | Luca Connaughton UTR Pro Sydney · Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 16/06 | Jonas Hahn UTR Pro Sydney · Hard |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
| 15/06 | Ashton Mcleod UTR Pro Sydney · Hard |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 07/06 | Noah Brownrigg UTR Pro Gold Coast · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 06/06 | Zane Stevens UTR Pro Gold Coast · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 05/06 | Casey Ambler UTR Pro Gold Coast · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 04/06 | Valentino De Pellegrin UTR Pro Gold Coast · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Kousuke Ogura
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07 | Omar Jasika M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
1-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 30/06 | Sanhui Shin M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 17/06 | Keisuke Saitoh M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
1-2 | 17-18 | L |
| 15/06 | Hayden Jones M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 12/06 | Hikaru Shiraishi M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
1-2 | 13-19 | L |
| 11/06 | Masamichi Imamura M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 09/06 | Yuto Oki M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 08/06 | Ryota Tanuma M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 03/06 | Evan Zhu M15 Harmon · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 27/05 | Hikaru Shiraishi M15 Karuizawa · ~Clay |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Jeremy Beale vs Kousuke Ogura?
Our model gives 57% to Jeremy Beale, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.