Tennis · Challenger Pozoblanco · 14/07, 17:00
Prediction: Pavel Lagutin vs Alejo Sanchez Quilez
Prediction summary
Winner
Pavel Lagutin
Alejo Sanchez Quilez
Estimated games
20.6
Recent form · 10 last
Pavel Lagutin
9-1 (W-L)
Alejo Sanchez Quilez
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Pavel Lagutin 1583 · Alejo Sanchez Quilez 1518
| Pavel Lagutin | Alejo Sanchez Quilez | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 59% | 41% |
| Market | 41% | 59% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Pavel Lagutin (rating 1583 vs 1518).
- Pavel Lagutin is in better form: 80% recent wins.
Statistics
| Pavel Lagutin | Alejo Sanchez Quilez | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | 75% (8) | 50% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.7-0.5 | 1-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.7-7.4 | 10.2-9.8 |
| Aces | 0.7 | 0.9 |
| Double faults | 2.3 | 1.6 |
| 1st serve % | 67.3% | 65.6% |
| Break % | 63.3% | 48% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.6
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Pavel Lagutin
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/07 | Takuya Kumasaka Challenger Pozoblanco · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 12/07 | Nicolas Tepmahc Challenger Pozoblanco · Hard |
2-1 | 14-12 | W |
| 30/06 | Eliakim Coulibaly Challenger Troyes · Clay |
1-2 | 12-17 | L |
| 29/06 | Franco Ribero Challenger Troyes · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 28/06 | Jan Kumstat Challenger Troyes · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 15/06 | Pietro Marino M15 Mungia-Laukariz · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 31/05 | Oscar Andres Martinez de Freitas UTR Pro Match Series · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 30/05 | Pavlos Tsitsipas UTR Pro Match Series · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 29/05 | Esteban Talavera Cortes UTR Pro Match Series · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 28/05 | Miguel Angel Machado UTR Pro Match Series · Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
Alejo Sanchez Quilez
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | Orlando Luz Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 29/06 | Mathys Erhard Challenger Milan · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 28/06 | Mili Poljicak Challenger Milan · Clay |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 15/06 | Oriol Roca Batalla Challenger Parma · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 14/06 | Samuel Vincent Ruggeri Challenger Parma · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 09/06 | David Jorda Sanchis Challenger Lyon · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 08/06 | Alex Martinez Challenger Lyon · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 07/06 | Andrea Baudel Challenger Lyon · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 19/05 | Thiago Monteiro Challenger Istanbul · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 18/05 | Karim Bennani Challenger Istanbul · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Pavel Lagutin vs Alejo Sanchez Quilez?
Our model gives 51% to Alejo Sanchez Quilez, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.