Tennis · Challenger Pozoblanco · 14/07, 17:00
Prediction: Izan Almazan Valiente vs Alastair Gray
Prediction summary
Winner
Izan Almazan Valiente
Alastair Gray
Estimated games
22
Recent form · 10 last
Izan Almazan Valiente
7-3 (W-L)
Alastair Gray
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Izan Almazan Valiente 1603 · Alastair Gray 1539
| Izan Almazan Valiente | Alastair Gray | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 59% | 41% |
| Market | 22% | 78% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Izan Almazan Valiente (rating 1603 vs 1539).
Statistics
| Izan Almazan Valiente | Alastair Gray | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 60% |
| Win % · Grass | – | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.6 | 1.2-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.8-9.5 | 11.3-9 |
| Aces | 1.1 | 5.3 |
| Double faults | 1.4 | 2.8 |
| 1st serve % | 64.4% | 72.3% |
| Break % | 49.9% | 42.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Izan Almazan Valiente
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/07 | Massimo Giunta Challenger Pozoblanco · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 12/07 | Samuel Heredia Challenger Pozoblanco · Hard |
2-1 | 13-11 | W |
| 30/06 | Carlo Alberto Caniato Challenger Troyes · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 29/06 | Theo Papamalamis Challenger Troyes · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 28/06 | Michael Zhu Challenger Troyes · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 20/06 | Ryan Nijboer M15 Mungia-Laukariz · ~Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 19/06 | Sergi Perez Contri M15 Mungia-Laukariz · ~Clay |
2-1 | 19-14 | W |
| 18/06 | Alejandro Juan Mano M15 Mungia-Laukariz · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 17/06 | Edouard Villoslada M15 Mungia-Laukariz · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 15/06 | Luka Talan Lopatic M15 Mungia-Laukariz · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Alastair Gray
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | Clement Chidekh Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 10/07 | Yi Zhou Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 08/07 | Patrick Brady Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 06/07 | Oscar Weightman Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 20/06 | Matteo Arnaldi ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 15/06 | August Holmgren Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 14/06 | James Watt Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 13/06 | Henry Jefferson Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 08/06 | Filippo Romano Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 07/06 | Edward Winter Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Izan Almazan Valiente vs Alastair Gray?
Our model gives 61% to Alastair Gray, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.