Tennis · W50 Nottingham · 14/07, 11:00
Prediction: Emily Appleton vs Lauryn John-Baptiste
Prediction summary
Winner
Emily Appleton
Lauryn John-Baptiste
Estimated games
20.2
Recent form · 10 last
Emily Appleton
2-8 (W-L)
Lauryn John-Baptiste
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Emily Appleton
2–3
Lauryn John-Baptiste
(5 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Emily Appleton 1489 · Lauryn John-Baptiste 1536
| Emily Appleton | Lauryn John-Baptiste | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 57% |
| Market | 69% | 31% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lauryn John-Baptiste (rating 1489 vs 1536).
- Head-to-head: Emily Appleton 2–3 Lauryn John-Baptiste (5).
- Note: Emily Appleton makes many double faults (5.9/match).
Statistics
| Emily Appleton | Lauryn John-Baptiste | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (2) | 67% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.8-1.4 | 1.5-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.5-11.2 | 11.3-8.6 |
| Aces | 4.9 | 1.2 |
| Double faults | 5.9 | 2.4 |
| 1st serve % | 67.4% | 62.9% |
| Break % | 45.9% | 55.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.2
H2H · Emily Appleton 2 – 3 Lauryn John-Baptiste (5)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Emily Appleton 2–3 Lauryn John-Baptiste
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/04/26 W35 Nottingham | 2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 28/04/23 ITF W25 Nottingham | 2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 06/02/22 ITF W25 Birmingham | 1-2 | 17-18 | L |
| 14/11/21 UK Pro League Women | 1-2 | 16-19 | L |
| 02/10/21 UK Pro League Women | 1-2 | 19-24 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Emily Appleton
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | Peyton Stearns WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 08/06 | Harmony Tan WTA Ilkley · Grass |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 07/06 | Tegan Bush WTA Ilkley · Grass |
2-1 | 15-9 | W |
| 30/05 | Rebeka Masarova WTA Birmingham · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 22/05 | Naho Sato W35 Changwon · ~Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 20/05 | Mana Kawamura W35 Changwon · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 13/05 | Haruka Kaji W75 Kurume · ~Carpet |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 10/05 | Alicia Dudeney W35 Nottingham |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 09/05 | Julia Adams W35 Nottingham |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 08/05 | Eliz Maloney W35 Nottingham |
2-1 | 19-17 | W |
Lauryn John-Baptiste
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | Eva Alvarez Sande W50 Corroios-Seixal |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 01/07 | Matilde Jorge W50 Elvas · ~Hard |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 29/06 | Emma Mazzoni W50 Elvas · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 28/06 | Coral Valle W50 Elvas · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 11/06 | Katarina Kuzmova W50 Guimaraes · ~Hard |
1-2 | 12-13 | L |
| 10/06 | Viktoria Hruncakova W50 Guimaraes · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 09/06 | Belle Thompson W50 Guimaraes · ~Hard |
2-1 | 14-10 | W |
| 08/06 | Carla Tomai W50 Guimaraes · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-0 | W |
| 04/06 | Matilde Jorge W50 Montemor-o-Novo · ~Hard |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 03/06 | Ana Filipa Santos W50 Montemor-o-Novo · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Emily Appleton vs Lauryn John-Baptiste?
Our model gives 57% to Emily Appleton, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.