Tennis · M25 Brisbane · 14/07, 05:00
Prediction: Hayden Jones vs Blake Ellis
Prediction summary
Winner
Hayden Jones
Blake Ellis
Estimated games
23.9
Recent form · 10 last
Hayden Jones
6-4 (W-L)
Blake Ellis
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Hayden Jones
0–1
Blake Ellis
(1 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Hayden Jones 1476 · Blake Ellis 1479
| Hayden Jones | Blake Ellis | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 50% | 50% |
| Market | 25% | 75% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Hayden Jones 0–1 Blake Ellis (1).
- Note: Hayden Jones makes many double faults (4.1/match).
- Note: Blake Ellis makes many double faults (4.1/match).
Statistics
| Hayden Jones | Blake Ellis | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 40% (10) | 44% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.2 | 1.1-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.9-12.2 | 13.1-14.1 |
| Aces | 4.9 | 6.1 |
| Double faults | 4.1 | 4.1 |
| 1st serve % | 69.4% | 71.9% |
| Break % | 37.1% | 32.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.9
H2H · Hayden Jones 0 – 1 Blake Ellis (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Hayden Jones 0–1 Blake Ellis
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/03/24 ITF M25 Mildura | 1-2 | 12-18 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Hayden Jones
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/06 | Kousuke Ogura M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 11/06 | Jumpei Yamasaki M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 10/06 | Hiromasa Koyama M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 08/06 | Kazuki Nishiwaki M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 24/11 | Ryuki Matsuda Challenger Playford · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 23/11 | Joshua Charlton Challenger Playford · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 18/11 | Marek Gengel Challenger Sydney · Hard |
1-2 | 16-18 | L |
| 10/11 | Carl Emil Overbeck Challenger Brisbane · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 09/11 | Colin Sinclair Challenger Brisbane · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 06/10 | Abraham Rosett UTR Pro Champaign · Hard |
1-2 | 10-15 | L |
Blake Ellis
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | Garrett Johns Challenger Newport · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 02/07 | Ozan Baris Challenger Cary · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 01/07 | Philip Sekulic Challenger Cary · Hard |
2-1 | 20-17 | W |
| 16/06 | Enzo Aguiard M25 Tulsa · ~Hard |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 11/06 | Sebastian Gorzny M25 Wichita · ~Hard |
1-2 | 15-15 | L |
| 10/06 | Alex Kobelt M25 Wichita · ~Hard |
2-1 | 20-19 | W |
| 03/06 | Andres Martin Challenger Tyler · Hard |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 26/05 | Tyler Zink Challenger Little Rock · Hard |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 23/04 | Ryuki Matsuda M25 Luzhou · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 21/04 | Matthew Dellavedova M25 Luzhou · ~Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Hayden Jones vs Blake Ellis?
Our model gives 64% to Blake Ellis, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.