Tennis · Challenger Pozoblanco · 14/07, 16:00
Prediction: Luca Castelnuovo vs Antoine Ghibaudo
Prediction summary
Winner
Luca Castelnuovo
Antoine Ghibaudo
Estimated games
22.6
Recent form · 10 last
Luca Castelnuovo
3-7 (W-L)
Antoine Ghibaudo
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Luca Castelnuovo 1432 · Antoine Ghibaudo 1430
| Luca Castelnuovo | Antoine Ghibaudo | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 50% | 50% |
| Market | 35% | 65% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Luca Castelnuovo | Antoine Ghibaudo | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 20% | 20% |
| Win % · Grass | 33% (3) | 17% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.7-1.6 | 0.7-1.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.3-12.1 | 9.8-12.1 |
| Aces | 5.5 | 5.8 |
| Double faults | 2.1 | 2.8 |
| 1st serve % | 68.9% | 64.9% |
| Break % | 36.3% | 28.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.6
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Luca Castelnuovo
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/07 | Max Basing Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 07/07 | Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 28/06 | Gabriel Ghetu Challenger Brasov · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 22/06 | Franco Agamenone Challenger Targu Mures · Clay |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 15/06 | Milos Karol Challenger Poznan · Clay |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 14/06 | Fares Zakaria Challenger Poznan · Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 06/06 | Jurij Rodionov ATP Stuttgart · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 01/06 | Mario Gonzalez Fernandez Challenger Centurion · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 25/05 | Semen Pankin Challenger Centurion · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 14/05 | Felix Balshaw M15 Prijedor · ~Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
Antoine Ghibaudo
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/07 | Lui Maxted Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 22/06 | Miomir Kecmanovic ATP Mallorca · Grass |
1-2 | 15-15 | L |
| 21/06 | Adam Walton ATP Mallorca · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 20/06 | Petr Bar Biryukov ATP Mallorca · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 08/06 | Oliver Okonkwo Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 31/05 | James Watt Challenger Birmingham · Grass |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 18/05 | Michael Zheng French Open · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 11/05 | Franco Agamenone Challenger Tunis · Clay |
1-1 | 10-12 | L |
| 10/05 | Skander Nsairi Challenger Tunis · Clay |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 02/05 | Manas Manoj Dhamne Challenger Shymkent · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Luca Castelnuovo vs Antoine Ghibaudo?
Our model gives 58% to Antoine Ghibaudo, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.