Tennis · Challenger Pozoblanco · 14/07, 16:00
Prediction: Yanki Erel vs Luka Pavlovic
Prediction summary
Winner
Yanki Erel
Luka Pavlovic
Estimated games
21.9
Recent form · 10 last
Yanki Erel
10-0 (W-L)
Luka Pavlovic
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Yanki Erel 1627 · Luka Pavlovic 1471
| Yanki Erel | Luka Pavlovic | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 71% | 29% |
| Market | 56% | 44% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Yanki Erel (rating 1627 vs 1471).
- Yanki Erel is in better form: 90% recent wins.
- Note: Luka Pavlovic makes many double faults (4.2/match).
Statistics
| Yanki Erel | Luka Pavlovic | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 90% | 40% |
| Win % · Clay | 0% (1) | 38% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.9-0.3 | 1-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.6-6.7 | 11.4-12.6 |
| Aces | 3.4 | 6.8 |
| Double faults | 2.3 | 4.2 |
| 1st serve % | 74.9% | 74.7% |
| Break % | 61% | 34.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.9
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Yanki Erel
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | Oliver Crawford M25 Roda de Bara |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 10/07 | Aren Baybars M25 Roda de Bara |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 09/07 | Iliyan Radulov M25 Roda de Bara |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 08/07 | Gianluca Carlini M25 Roda de Bara |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 07/07 | Noah Regas M25 Roda de Bara |
2-1 | 14-12 | W |
| 16/06 | Ryo Tabata Challenger Royan · Clay |
1-2 | 16-19 | L |
| 30/05 | Vadym Ursu M15 Kutaisi · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 30/05 | Daniil Ostapenkov M15 Kutaisi · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 28/05 | Maksim Shin M15 Kutaisi · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 28/05 | Kevin Edengren M15 Kutaisi · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Luka Pavlovic
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/07 | Titouan Droguet Challenger Iasi · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 07/07 | Frederico Ferreira Silva Challenger Iasi · Clay |
2-1 | 14-13 | W |
| 02/07 | Dimitar Kuzmanov Challenger Brasov · Clay |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 30/06 | Akira Santillan Challenger Brasov · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 24/06 | Jaime Faria Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 22/06 | Mark Lajal Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 08/06 | Daniel Elahi Galan Challenger Lyon · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 02/06 | Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo Challenger Prostejov · Clay |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 24/05 | Joao Fonseca French Open · Clay |
0-3 | 12-19 | L |
| 22/05 | Darwin Blanch French Open · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Yanki Erel vs Luka Pavlovic?
Our model gives 63% to Yanki Erel, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.